He appears willing to end military engagement against him, even if they remain closed. This option, according to US government officials, could consolidate Tehran’s control over one of the world’s most important energy arteries, postponing a particularly complicated operation to get it back up and running.
In particular, in recent days, Trump and his aides have estimated that a mission to open this critical sea passage would extend the conflict beyond the four-to-six-week time frame he had set. He decided that the US should achieve its key goals of weakening Iran’s navy and missile stockpile and curtailing current hostilities, while putting diplomatic pressure on Tehran to restore the free flow of trade.
If that fails, Washington will press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the initiative in opening the Straits.
There are also military options the president could consider but are not his immediate priority.
Trump’s differing views
Over the past month, Trump has expressed differing views publicly on how the Straits issue should be handled, articulating conflicting goals for the war as a whole. At times it has threatened to bomb energy infrastructure if the sea route is not opened by a certain date. On other occasions he has played down the importance of the Straits to the US, saying the problem affects other countries.
The longer the Straits remain closed, the more the global economy will be disrupted and energy prices will rise. Many countries, including US allies, are suffering from the reduction in energy supplies that used to flow freely through this passage. Industries that depend on materials such as fertilizers to produce food or helium to make microchips face shortages.
Without a quick return to safe passage, Tehran will continue to threaten global trade until the US and its partners either reach a deal or end the crisis with the use of force, analysts say.
Susan Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at the Brookings Institution in Washington, called it “incredibly irresponsible” to end military operations before opening the Straits.
The US and Israel started the war together and cannot ignore the consequences, Maloney said. “Energy markets are inherently global, and there is no way to protect the U.S. from the damage that is already being done and will worsen dramatically if the closure of the Straits continues.”
Trump’s desire to quickly end the war is at odds with other moves he is planning. Over the weekend, the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit entered the area. He has also ordered the deployment of elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and is considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East. At the same time, he has described the war as “an excursion” and “a pleasant sojourn”, while at the same time considering a complex and dangerous mission to seize the regime’s uranium.
On Monday, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said the US was “working towards” restoring normal operation in the Straits, but did not include that as a key military objective.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the current campaign will be over in a few weeks.
“Next we’re going to be faced with the issue of the Straits of Hormuz, and it’s going to be up to Iran to decide,” he said, “or an alliance of countries from around the world and the region, with the US participating, will make sure it’s open, one way or the other.”
“Sign of Desperation”
The Trump administration had predicted the possibility of Iran closing the Straits after the first bombings. However, when Iran laid mines and threatened to hit tankers, traffic almost came to a halt.
Senior officials initially played down the problem, despite mounting pressure on Washington. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called Iran’s actions “a sign of desperation.”
To get around the problem, Trump called on shipping companies to take on the risk of transit. When that didn’t work, he turned to direct threats against Tehran. Last week he took it as a concession that Iran allowed some ships to pass, sparking a new round of diplomacy.
However, after declaring that Iran was now ruled by a “more reasonable” regime, he threatened to strike energy facilities if the Straits were not opened immediately.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant hinted that the US or a multinational force, but without indicating an urgent need for an immediate reopening.
About 20 percent of the world’s oil supply is transported through the Straits, and the tension has already pushed the price of oil above $100 a barrel — with some analysts predicting even $200 if the disruption continues.
