Wall Street bonuses hit a historic record in 2025, but the 2026 scenario is already getting worse

Wall Street had a banner year in 2025 — and the paychecks reflect it. Total securities industry bonuses reached a record $49.2 billion in 2025, up 9% from the previous year, while the average bonus rose 6% to $246,900, New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli said. Profits boosted payouts: Wall Street reported a record $65.1 billion in pretax profits in 2025, more than 30% above the $49.9 billion the previous year.

“Wall Street has performed strongly for much of the past year despite all the ongoing domestic and international turmoil,” DiNapoli said. “When Wall Street does well, it benefits our state and city budgets. However, we are seeing slower job growth, and geopolitical conflicts pose extraordinary risks to the short- and long-term outlook.”

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Strong trading activity, underwriting operations and asset management fees drove gains. There is, however, one important caveat: When adjusted for inflation, total bonuses peaked before the Great Recession in 2006 at $53.7 billion in today’s values, meaning the nominal record is just that — nominal.

Wall Street’s presence in New York remains enormous. The sector accounted for 20.2% of all economic activity in the city in 2024 and for 19.4% of state tax revenue in the last fiscal year.

DiNapoli estimates the 2025 bonds will generate $199 million more in income tax revenue for the state and $91 million more for the city compared with the previous year — a crucial buffer as federal funding becomes uncertain.

The average securities industry salary in New York City rose 7.3% to $505,677 in 2024, including bonuses — the second highest on record and nearly five times the average salary for the rest of the city’s private sector. Bonuses alone represented around 42% of all industry compensation.

Not everything points upwards. The number of employees in the sector fell to 198,200 in 2025 from a 30-year peak of 201,500 in 2024, although the comptroller’s office expects annual reviews of the data to show modest growth.

New York City’s share of U.S. securities jobs, meanwhile, has fallen to 17.9 percent, down from about a third of the national total in 1990, as competitors like Dallas and Miami have aggressively expanded their financial sectors.

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The concern now is whether 2026 will be able to come close to this performance. New York’s budget plans may already be too optimistic: The governor’s proposed budget assumed that financial sector bonuses would grow 25.9% in the current fiscal year, while the city projected a 15.1% increase in securities sector bonuses. Based on DiNapoli’s estimate, both goals appear out of reach.

President Trump’s escalating tariff agenda rattled stock markets in early 2026, and the pace of hiring on Wall Street lost steam. With one in every 13 jobs in New York City tied directly or indirectly to the securities industry, the challenge of getting the next chapter right goes far beyond the trading floor.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com opinion pieces are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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