Flávio would beat Lula in the 2nd round in São Paulo, says AtlasIntel

AtlasIntel survey released this Wednesday (April 1, 2026) shows that the senator (PL) would beat the president (PT) in São Paulo, in a possible 2nd round, with 49% against 44%. The former president’s chosen one (PL) has a 5 percentage point advantage over the PT member.

The survey also shows that pre-candidates (New) and (PSD) would beat Lula in São Paulo, in the 2nd round. Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible, would also beat the president.

Here are the results:

Scenario 1

• Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 49.0%
• Lula (PT): 44.0%
• white/null/don’t know: 7.1%

Scenario 2

• Romeu Zema (New): 49.3%
• Lula (PT): 43.8%
• white/null/don’t know: 6.9%

Scenario 3

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 49.2%
• Lula (PT): 43.4%
• white/null/don’t know: 7.4%

Scenario 4

• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 45.9%
• Lula (PT): 42.4%
• white/null/don’t know: 11.7%

The survey was carried out by AtlasIntel from March 24 to 27, 2026. 2,254 voters from São Paulo were interviewed. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus. Read the (PDF – 4 MB).

The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the codes: SP-00899/2026 and BR-01079/2026. The study cost R$75,000. It was paid for with its own resources.

1st SHIFT

In the 1st round, Flávio appears tied with Lula, but numerically ahead. (Mission) is in 3rd place.

AtlasIntel tested 2 1st round scenarios, one with Ronaldo Caiado, chosen by the PSD to contest the elections, and the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD), which was also an option for the race to Planalto.

Here are the results:

SCENARIO 1

• Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 43,4%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 42,5%
• Renan Santos (Mission) – 5%;
• Romeu Zema (Novo) – 3,2%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) – 2,4%;
• Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 0,8%;
• blanks/nulls – 2,2%;
• don’t know – 0,4%.