“The United States will always have a fundamental interest in ensuring that Gulf energy supplies [Pérsico] do not fall into the hands of a declared enemy, that the Strait of Hormuz remain open, may the Red Sea remains navigable, that the region is not an incubator or exporter of terrorism against US interests or US territory, and that Israel stay safe.”
United States National Security Strategy
November 2025.
In exactly 19 minutes, Trump has recycled all his messages of the last few hours in an address to the Americans, the first since the beginning of the attacks, on February 28, to frustrate the expectations of the markets and the bagswho were betting on a specific departure announcement from USA of hostilities in a war that is now not only that of Iranbut that of Persian Gulf y Lebanon. In the next three weeks, he said, the US Army will attack Iran until it “returns to the stone age.”
Trump has managed to radicalize most of his allies and, especially, the european countriesuntil now fearful, with their threats to abandon the I’LL TAKE. It has urged them, given their dependence on oil coming from the Persian Gulfto take care of themselves to resolve the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz on the part of Irangiven that USA It is not affected because it is self-sufficient and perhaps, as a large exporting country, it is even one of the first beneficiaries of the situation.
What, therefore, would the announcement of Trump to ignore what happens in the Strait of Hormuzthrough which the 20% of oil and gas What is consumed in the world?
How is it possible that USA have put black on white in your National Security Strategy last November that energy supplies should not fall into the hands of a declared enemy, that is, Iranand who attended as a spectator the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran appears to have de facto nationalized the Strait of Hormuz without firing a single missile to sink tanker boats with oil cargo. Because the only two cargo ships carrying Iranian oil that were attacked were in the area of the Gulfnot in the Strait of Hormuz.
Anas AlhajjiAmerican economist of Syrian origin, professor at several universities in USA (Oklahoma and Ohio Northern), expert in energy marketsbelieves that the idea that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz is attributing a capacity that Tehran doesn’t have that the big ones insurance companies European and now North American companies have acted decisively to interrupt the entry and exit of tankers from Hormuz.
It all started, according His Highnessin the first war, the twelve-day war, in June 2025. The Strait of Hormuz has never suffered a blockade, but at that time, remember, the media They began to use what they call an “argumentary” in which the possibility of closure was advanced. Countries like China on those dates they began to accumulate oil stocks before the possible closure of Hormuz.
“Iran did not have the capacity to do it. Neither before February 28 nor now. It could cause problems, yes. But not the blockade,” he explained. His Highness in an article in your account Substack.
“The fiasco of the insurance It did not happen because the tankers were attacked. The first two ships attacked in the area – not in the strait – were carrying Iranian oil. And the insurance companies stopped insuring when a submarine USA fired a torpedo and sank an Iranian warship in Sri Lankawhich expanded insurance coverage Basra (Iraq) to Sri Lanka. The companies couldn’t do it.”
It’s true: some tankers that were carrying oil were sunk. But that happened in Red Sea. And the best thing: the companies did not cancel the insurance.
Now, the Trump Administration tries to replace European insurance with European insurance USA. They are looking at how to solve the problem of insurance for navigation in the Persian Gulf and the way to escort them.
The minimum width is approximately 33 to 34 kilometers at its narrowest point between the coasts of Iran y Oman.
And then how does a Strait of Hormuz blocked?
“The blockade consists of the fact that ships passing through the strait cannot do so now as they did before February 28, but must pass through Iran’s water zone and, for this, they must pay. Most of the Strait of Hormuz is in Omanbut Iran forces ships to pass through its waters. The waters of the strait are shared waters. This insurance fiasco cannot be accidental. Why doesn’t Trump, who talks about everything that crosses his mind, say a single word about insurance? Now it tries to replace the European ones with American ones, but it says nothing,” says the expert.
Las insurance companies must ensure, given that no ship has been sunk by missiles. But they don’t.
The drastic fall of maritime traffic across the Strait would be mainly, according to this theory, because insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage or imposed prohibitive premiums. Given this situation, the shipowners and charterers have largely suspended transits rather than risk uninsured travel, either by direct coordination with the Trump Administration or, simply, as a market reaction to the increase in tensions.
Who benefits?, he asked himself His Highness. That is to say: who benefits from this interruption in exports of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) of the Gulf?
“Mainly the president Trump y Vladimir Putin. The United States, as the world’s leading producer of LNG, is in a position to cover the supply deficit left by Qatarthus boosting US energy exports and revenues. Russia also benefits from higher global energy prices and less competition in gas markets, especially in Europa”he points out.
Who is harmed? Europa is facing immediate energy shortages and skyrocketing gas prices as it has partially relied on Qatari LNG as a reliable alternative to Russian supplies. Chinaanother major importer, will also suffer higher costs and supply constraints in the long term.
Beyond the immediate interests of Trump y Netanyahu in the Persian Gulf War, Anas Alhajji interprets that a global restructuring of the control of the energy flows and that, in the short term, the war and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz could cause a collapse of the international economy.
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