Variations in electricity tariffs should add approximately 0.4 percentage points to the country’s official inflation (IPCA) in 2026according to projections by TR Soluções, a company specialized in tariff modeling.
The estimate considers the direct effects of adjustments by concessionaires on the electricity bills of electricity consumers in the main metropolitan regions, based on the methodology and weights defined by IBGE.
In the opinion of the company’s regulatory director, Helder Sousa, the electricity bill is no longer a problem for the electricity sector and has also become an issue for the Central Bank, since the readjustments now have a relevant impact on inflation, directly influencing the conduct of monetary policy.
“It is important to highlight, however, that this estimate reflects a base scenario that only isolates tariff repositionings”, warns Sousa.
The situation could be even worse. If there is a deterioration in hydrological conditions, with a reduction in the level of hydroelectric reservoirs, the impact may be greater, as the model disregards the activation of tariff flags throughout 2026but considers maintaining the current ICMS and PIS/Cofins rates.
“If the electrical system faces a water stress scenario that requires energy inflation, the energy inflationary pressure on the final index could be greater”, highlights Sousa.
Rate rise could reach 11%
As for tariffs, TR Soluções estimates that, on average, increase in the range of 11% for residential consumers. The calculations were made based on the company’s Energy Tariff Estimation Service (Sete), which applies tariff regulation procedures to each of the 51 distribution concessionaires throughout Brazil.
TR Soluções’ projection is greater than the perspective of Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) published in mid-March in “Info Tarifas”, which predicts that . The TR percentage represents almost triple the market estimate for the IPCA, the official inflation index, projected at 4.1% in the Central Bank’s latest Focus bulletin.
Costs and weather put pressure on rates
The main causes of the increases are variations in the costs of energy purchase contracts and transmission tariffs, in addition to pressure from hydrology, that is, the risk of a less rainy year in the reservoirs of Brazil’s main hydroelectric plants.
Furthermore, the projection considers the start of supply, from August onwards, from plants contracted through the and whose effect should be observed in the tariff processes from May onwards. “This should push the bill up, by around 0.6% via charges”
In the case of distributors that went through a tariff event in the first four months, the impact of these plants on the tariff will only be noticed from 2027 onwards.
Partial cost relief
Despite the pressures, some factors should help contain part of the increases. The cost of the distribution service should grow below inflation, and CDE subsidies (Energy Development Account) tend to have less impact.
This is because Law No. 15,269/2025 started to include free consumers in the distribution of these subsidies, expanding the contribution base. It is worth remembering that subsidies were responsible for 18.07% of residential consumers’ tariffs.
Furthermore, the end of most of the emergency auction contracts held during the 2021 energy crisis also contributes to alleviating system costs.
Free consumer must feel nuclear impact
On the other hand, free market consumers will face increased costs due to the change in energy allocation of the Angra 1 and Angra 2 nuclear plants.
The change, provided for in Law 15,235/2025, should add around R$10 per megawatt-hour (MWh) to the expenses of these consumers.
