Could the conflict in the Middle East lead to price controls? Here’s how it works in Greece

A supermarket where everything is free is about to open in New York

Could the conflict in the Middle East lead to price controls? Here's how it works in Greece

The model adopted by Greece during the inflation crisis in recent years allowed the country to have one of the cheapest basic baskets in the EU and could be an example to follow if the conflict in Iran prolongs and causes prices to rise.

The war between the US and Israel against Iran sent shockwaves through the global economy and comparisons to inflation in the era of COVID-19 are becoming difficult to ignore. In many countries, these pressures are already being felt, with families struggling to buy essential goods.

During and after the height of the pandemic, governments across the political spectrum experienced the price controls in an attempt to protect people the dizzying increase in the cost of living. Spain and Mexico, for example, implemented such measures from the political left; Greece did it from the right.

These measures were a response to inflation pressures, the fragility of family finances and the growing insecurity for large parts of the population.

Among these examples, the Greek “food basket” program as a detailed attempt to keep essential goods accessible. As consumers may once again face spiraling prices linked to the cost of living, this is a case study worth examining.

Greece entered the inflationary period (2021-2022) with some of the lowest salaries in Europe. Its average salary is still just a third of that in Germany. When inflation reached 10% to 12% in 2022, basic necessities such as food, dairy products and household essentials quickly became more expensive.

In November 2022, the center-right New Democracy government introduced the food basket, requiring major supermarket chains to kept prices low in more than 50 categories of essential products. These categories included bread, pasta, rice, dairy products, cleaning products and children’s foods. Relevant items were clearly highlighted in stores and the list was updated weekly.

Originally presented as a temporary tool, the program has been repeatedly prolonged due to persistent inflation – most recently, due to concerns about conflict-related price rises. It has become a central part of the country’s strategy to stabilize the cost of living, along with related measures including profit caps in the fuel sector.

A system based on transparency

What distinguishes the Greek model is the way it combines regulation with consumer access to information through a digital platform. Large supermarket chains are required to publish the prices of basic food items online.

Once listed, the price of an item cannot increase for seven daysalthough it can decrease at any time. Retailers are subject to fines of up to €5 million for violations. The program also requires supermarkets to submit price lists from their suppliers, providing regulators with information about where price increases occur.

The platform allows consumers compare prices between retailers and locate branches that stock specific items. All purchases must be made in person, maintaining the program’s focus on physical retail and, at the same time, increasing transparency.

In addition to the shopping basket itself, in 2025, the Greek Ministry of Development and retailers agreed price reductions of 8% on average for 2000 products – and profit margins on essential items were capped at the 2021 level. Inspectors carried out regular audits to ensure compliance with the rules.

In many product categories, there were notable price drops. Among 56 foods and breakfast cereals, there was a price drop of up to 23%; among 34 cheese products, the drop was 5% to 35%; For fresh meat, the drop was 5% to 7% in three products. In addition, oils and fats saw price drops of 5% to 16%, pasta 3% to 5% and sweets and chocolates 3% to 17%.

O food basket was gradually expanded to include pulses, fresh poultry, cuts of meat, milk and cheese. The Greek government has also introduced temporary “theme baskets” during periods of high seasonal demand. To date, Christmas and Easter hampers have included lamb, goat meat, turkey and chocolate eggs to contain holiday costs.

Price controls continue to be controversial for some. Retailers in Greece argue that the system is unfair and who are unable to absorb the costs.

However, in the Greek case, supermarkets accepted reduced profit margins for product lines with fixed prices. They responded with price wars to attract customers and increase market share, as well as private brands with competitive prices. One consequence of these measures is that Greece now has a relatively cheap food basket compared to other EU countries.

In the United Kingdom, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, some large retail chains increased prices above inflationdoubling its profits between 2019 and 2021-22. In these circumstances, many may consider it fair to ask them to contribute to combating the cost of living crisis.

Thus, although price controls do not always please retail and other sectors, is becoming more common. Many countries have experimented with ways to contain the cost of living, as practical tools to stabilize inflation and support citizens during unpredictable economic shocks.

Greece’s experience shows that such measures can be structured, transparent and applicable and also demonstrates that price controls do not have to be limited to a single political tradition. It has been implemented by governments across the ideological spectrum when faced with inflationary pressures.

Amid growing economic turmoil, triggered by conflict and volatility in energy markets, Greece’s family food basket offers a model worth studying. This is not a complete solution to high inflation – there is nothing that simple – but it demonstrates how governments can intervene to reduce pressure on families while maintaining control over essential markets.

A political party willing to advocate measures that provide immediate relief to struggling families could find great support at a time when many people have not yet recovered from the latest cost-of-living crisis.

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