A first step towards peace in the Middle East was made in the early hours, shortly before Trump’s ultimatum on Iran expired and the gate of the madhouse for the destruction of “an entire civilization” as the American president had threatened opened wide.
Washington and Tehran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, during which they will seek ways to end the war to permanently end the bombing, bloodshed and economic strangulation. Delegations from the two countries will travel next Friday, April 10, to Pakistan to finalize the details of a broader settlement.
US President Donald Trump set as a necessary condition the “full, immediate and safe” opening of the Straits of Hormuz, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi underlined that the safe passage of ships will be done in coordination with the armed forces of his country and with technical restrictions. The Associated Press reported that ships passing through the straits will now pay tolls in Iran and Oman, which was not the case in the past.
China’s diplomatic background and role
For now the ambiguity serves both sides, but it is not certain that all the differences will be bridged soon despite the optimism of the Pakistani mediators. China is said to have played an important role in the most critical stage of behind-the-scenes contacts to find common elements between the 15 conditions set by the US and the 10 conditions set by Iran.
Beyond the triumphalisms on both sides—Washington declaring that military objectives have been met and Tehran crushing the enemy by forcing them to sit at the table—this first ceasefire agreement gives Trump a way out of the escalating domestic and international backlash while ensuring the Iranian regime’s survival, at least for the foreseeable future, and appears to satisfy his desire for a wider arrangement to include his proxies.
It is characteristic that in its own communiqué, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council states that it will come to Islamabad with great distrust of the US, for talks that could be prolonged and emphasizes the need to preserve to the highest degree the national unity forged during the war.
Israel’s attitude and regional challenges
However, there are questions about the attitude that Israel will ultimately adopt as the American president spoke of a bilateral agreement, while the Pakistani mediator, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, after announcing that the immediate ceasefire also includes “Lebanon and other areas”, invited US and Iranian delegations to the talks in Islamabad, avoiding any direct reference to Israel.
The fact that both Iran and Pakistan do not recognize Israel on the one hand explains the absence of reference to an Israeli delegation, on the other hand it makes it easier for Prime Minister Netanyahu not to make commitments to third parties but only to Trump.
A government source told Haaretz newspaper that Israel would abide by the cease-fire announced by Trump, but added that the Netanyahu government had reservations about the potential deal and wanted to achieve more war goals before the truce. International analysts consider it unlikely that Israel will continue the war against Iran on its own, but that does not mean that it will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon or that it will ease the cordon in Gaza City.
Until dawn, sirens sounded in central and southern Israel while interceptions and strikes by Iranian missiles were reported. The situation was similar in the Gulf countries, where sirens and explosions were heard in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
“Plunge” in oil prices and stock market rise
The announcements of a ceasefire and the imminent opening of the Straits of Hormuz had an immediate impact on the markets, with the price of oil plunging by 15%. Asian stock markets opened significantly higher, while the dollar fell against the euro and the yen.
The general feeling in diplomatic and economic circles is that after six weeks of war, something is finally moving in the right direction. But much could change by the time talks begin on Friday, and even more could be overturned in two weeks.
