Senator Flávio Bolsonaro expanded the range of options for the vice position in his presidential pre-campaign and began testing, behind the scenes, a series of PP names. The movement is interpreted by allies as a way of pressuring Senator Tereza Cristina to advance in negotiations and agree to join the ticket.
The campaign’s main bet, Tereza should meet with Flávio on Thursday, in Campo Grande, during Expo Grande, a fair that brings together leaders from agribusiness and politics. The meeting is not yet on the agenda, but it is treated as a priority by the senator’s interlocutors, who see the trip as a direct attempt to unlock the conversation.
The vice’s definition is part of a broader negotiation. Flávio tries to consolidate the support of the federation between União Brasil and PP, considered strategic to expand television time, electoral structure and regional capillarity. The two parties, however, have adopted caution: they postpone a decision and maintain open channels with the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Internally, government wings are pressing to avoid aligning with Flávio and defend the release of directorates for regional negotiations.
In this scenario, the vice position became a central piece of bargaining. The PP is seen as the most advanced path, with the party’s president, Ciro Nogueira, inclined to move forward. The design, however, comes up against resistance from União Brasil. Leaders of the party led by Antonio Rueda demonstrate irritation with the PL’s advance on their members during the party window, which halted conversations and increased internal pressure for the party not to end support at this time. In total, the PL affiliated eight deputies from the party.
For Tereza to advance as vice-president, interlocutors say that it will be necessary not only a personal agreement with Flávio, but a broader party definition, with the joint support of PP and União Brasil for the candidacy.
In addition to negotiations with the PP and União Brasil, Flávio’s allies admit that the campaign maintains an alternative plan if the federation does not move forward. In this scenario, the name of the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, appears as an option for vice president, especially among the more ideological wing of Bolsonarism. Interlocutors from this group assess that Zema would guarantee a clearer programmatic alignment with the right, even though his entry does not add the same potential for television time and party articulation as a composition with the PP.
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Vice woman
While trying to make the former minister viable, Flávio began to encourage alternatives within the PP itself, especially women, a profile that he himself began to publicly defend as ideal for the position.
This Tuesday, the senator met in São Paulo with congresswoman Simone Marquetto and, according to allies, came away “excited” from the conversation. The meeting put the parliamentarian’s name on the campaign’s radar, but with reservations. Marquetto does not meet criteria considered priority, such as having a connection with the evangelical electorate, with agribusiness or with the Northeast.
— I met Simone a few days ago, I really liked it, it’s a great painting, but Vice is further down the road — said Flávio.
Other names began to circulate with more force. Among them, deputy Clarissa Tércio, from Pernambuco, who brings together attributes valued by the campaign. A woman, evangelical and from the Northeast, she is close to former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and linked to the same church as former minister Damares Alves. The profile has strong adherence to the Bolsonarist base, but, in the assessment of allies, it may have limited reach beyond this nucleus.
According to interlocutors, Clarissa has already been contacted by members of the campaign and should have a conversation with Flávio in the next fifteen days.
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Another name mentioned is that of João Pessoa councilor, Eliza Virgínia. Evangelical and with a prominent role in conservative agendas, she is based in the Northeast and has a strong presence in networks and in religious circles. Allies assess, however, that his eventual choice would tend more to reinforce the existing base than to expand the electoral reach of the ticket, in addition to having less national projection.
Among allies, the assessment is that these alternatives currently function as still uncertain options. Although defended by different groups, they all carry some type of limitation, whether due to profile, electoral reach or ability to aggregate outside the base.
The priority, however, continues to be Tereza Cristina, who brings together attributes considered ideal, such as connection with agribusiness, national projection and ability to articulate.
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By expanding the range and giving visibility to new names, Flávio’s strategy is to keep negotiations moving and increase the pressure for Tereza Cristina to enter the game once and for all.
Caiado wants to increase TV time and dispute União and PP with Flávio
While Flávio Bolsonaro tries to attract the PP, Ronaldo Caiado has adopted a different strategy and seeks to advance first against União Brasil, and then try to bring the PP. Caiado has signaled a preference for seeking the vice-president outside the PSD, in acronyms with greater electoral weight. In this group, leaders mention female names from the bench — such as former deputy Rose Modesto, from Mato Grosso do Sul — who could meet the profile defended by the governor.
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The strategy foresees, in a second moment, advancing on the PP, forming a broader composition. The movement is described by interlocutors as the opposite of that adopted by Flávio Bolsonaro, who tries to attract both parties simultaneously. In the case of Caiado, the assessment is that construction should be gradual, starting with an anchor party that provides political support for the candidacy.
A wing close to Gilberto Kassab, however, defends the assembly of a pure ticket, with a name from the party itself. In this scenario, the former mayor of Caucaia and federal deputy recently affiliated to the PSD, Fernanda Pessoa, emerges. Former governor and former senator Jorge Bornhausen, an ally of Kassab, summarizes this position:
— PSDB believes that each party should have its candidate and, therefore, defends a pure ticket. It can be a woman or a man, what matters is being from the PSDB. Let’s first wait for Flávio to choose his and the conventions before we choose ours.
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Interlocutors recognize, however, that an internal solution tends to have limited scope, as it does not resolve the project’s main demand: expanding television time and party structure.
Allies also claim that the governor should postpone the definition of his vice-president and use his own performance in the polls as a negotiating instrument. The reading is that, by consolidating himself as a competitive option — in the third or fourth place range —, Caiado gains strength to bargain for support and define the composition of the ticket under more favorable conditions.
