As Donald Trump approached the deadline he had set for destroying Iran’s “entire civilization,” it became clear that one country had enough influence to convince Tehran to back down: America’s biggest rival, China.
In the hours following the announcement of the ceasefire publicly mediated by Pakistan, Iranian officials credited last-minute pressure from Beijing as decisive for the acceptance of the agreement, an assertion soon validated by Trump himself. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked China for its support, while the White House said Beijing’s role in the truce occurred at the “highest levels” of the American and Chinese governments.
China has neither confirmed nor denied reports of its central role in the negotiations, and President Xi Jinping has yet to publicly comment on the conflict that has blocked a fifth of global oil supplies. But the decision to intervene reflects Beijing’s ability to navigate solid ties with Iran, the Gulf nations and Trump, and marks a break with China’s historical preference for remaining on the sidelines.
The turnaround was motivated by economic reasons. The conflict threatened China’s energy supplies, said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Data forecast for next week should show a slowdown in industrial production and exports in the month following the start of the war.
“China acted because the war in Iran directly threatened the economic conditions it depends on for growth and domestic political stability,” Liu said. “Trump’s public credit to China is exactly the kind of political capital Beijing wanted ahead of a rescheduled summit.”
A pause in the fighting would make it easier for Trump to visit Beijing next month, leaving the American leader indebted to his Chinese counterpart. Trump will already arrive in the Chinese capital with his punitive tariffs overturned by the Supreme Court and with the American military presence in Asia reduced by resources diverted to the Middle East.
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For Beijing, however, entering into negotiations on a war without an easy solution carries risks, even if the action is limited to behind-the-scenes pressure on an ally dependent on Chinese support. China is Iran’s biggest trading partner and the main buyer of its oil.
The risk was highlighted when Pakistani officials reported to the Guardian that, while Islamabad acted as a mediator, China acted as a “guarantor”, promising Iranian officials that they would not be assassinated during future negotiations. It was not clear how Beijing could offer such a guarantee, nor what the motivation would be, given the impact if something went wrong.
Asked about the report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning deflected the question at a regular news conference on Thursday, saying China “always advocates an early end to hostilities and the resolution of differences through diplomatic and political means to restore stability and peace in the Middle East.”
For years, Xi has ignored calls from Western leaders to use his friendship with Vladimir Putin to help end the war in Ukraine, providing Moscow with diplomatic and economic support while cementing a key partner in opposing the U.S.-led world order.
While China has bolstered its credentials by presiding over a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, the true size of Beijing’s role in that deal remains unclear.
Other mediation efforts have been restricted to conflicts on China’s borders, such as in Myanmar, where authorities played a relevant role in ceasefire negotiations with the regime, or, more recently, by hosting seven days of peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan. That move could help reduce tensions in Islamabad ahead of the first round of planned Iran-US talks in the Pakistani capital on Saturday, with Vice President JD Vance leading the American delegation.
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Bringing Iran to the negotiating table, however, is only the first step toward ending hostilities. Tehran seeks security guarantees against further attacks and has publicly asked Beijing to play that role, a request that analysts consider unlikely to be accepted.
“It is difficult to imagine China offering explicit security guarantees to Iran during or after a ceasefire,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Such commitments would run counter to Beijing’s historic aversion to military risk, especially when a confrontation with the United States is conceivable.”
Beijing could offer economic support to stabilize Iran’s economy or help rebuild some of its defense capability, Zhao said, adding that reports that China continues to export sodium perchlorate to Iran, a precursor to missile fuel, point in that direction.
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A China-Arab summit scheduled for this year will give Middle East officials another opportunity to pressure Beijing into taking a bigger role, said Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University and a former Chinese diplomat.
“China is definitely not satisfied with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. “But how to secure the future of the Strait of Hormuz, or the Red Sea, as a public good for the entire world is a big question.”
