Guedes predicts opposition victory and sees rise of the right – 04/10/2026 – Panel

Upon his return to a public event after a period of submersion, the former minister () predicted that low economic growth will help bring the opposition to power in the elections.

“When you spend more, you issue more currency, it generates inflation, increases interest rates, reduces growth. Brazil will grow less and electorally this will push it to the other side”, he said in a lecture here, where he was treated like a pop star by an audience made up mostly of young liberals.

He compared the situation in Brazil to that in Chile,

“In Chile, the first round gave Boric 30% [referência à candidata apoiada pelo então presidente]. In the second round, he gave Boric 30%. It will happen the same way here,” he said.

It was his only more political comment in a speech in which he made more general digressions about the economy, public accounts, inequality and geopolitics.

He also defended his actions as a government minister, saying he delivered accounts on time.

“When we left [do governo, em 2022]the inflation forecast for the following year was 3.2%. There would be a surplus in 5,000 municipalities, a surplus in the federal government, in state-owned companies, everywhere in between.”

According to Guedes, if the Lula government had not ruined everything with increased spending, Brazil would be growing at 5% per year.

When reflecting on the moment on the right, he says that the alliance between liberals in the economy and conservatives in politics and culture meets the “spirit of the time” in several parts of the world.

Initially, he said, there were liberals in the front seat and conservatives in the back, but today that has reversed. “The important thing is the socialists out of the truck,” he said, to loud applause from the audience.

Courted by the right, he has not yet committed to any candidacy in the presidential elections, although the logical deduction is that he is closer to Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In the lecture, he said that he is currently dedicated only to the private sector.

Before going on stage, however, he spoke amicably with three presidential candidates present: Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Aldo Rebelo (DC).

Despite this, the former minister said that he did not shy away from the debate of ideas and demonstrated optimism with the future of Brazil. “We have no natural enemy. Our problem is ourselves,” he said.


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