“After the descent into hell in World War II,” and “after a long hiatus of eighty years, Europeans today face a dangerous, dark world“, uncertain and of rivalries between great powers, for which they are not prepared.”
He Strategic Overview 2026which has just been presented by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), observes the disruption that Donald Trump has broughtwhich he also places as a key axis in other risks and challenges of this new era: the attitude of China, those of the medium powers and that of Morocco, as well as the reinforced emergence of populism and its relative, polarization.
The work of the IEEE (strategic analysis body of the Ministry of Defense directly linked to the Center for Higher Studies of National Defense, or FROM THE BODY) does not leave much room for optimism. In his introduction, Professor Jean Monnet José María de Areilza Carvajalwho chaired the working group that prepared this central analysis document, asserts that the planet is experiencing “one of those moments of dizzying transformation that only occur every many years.”
At this stage, “The Trump administration has stopped understanding the value of alliancesa concept that China is not able to make its own either, due to its asymmetric vision of relations with other countries.” And it is not just any moment, but one in which, with multilateralism and International Law weakened, opportunistic diseases arise such as atomic rearmament, about which the IEEE issues a stern warning: “Nuclear proliferation is once again a challenge for which there are no longer sufficient international control instruments.”
Europe, weak
In the opinion of the person who has directed the work on the Strategic Panorama 2026 for Defense, Europe has a double objective, difficult as walking on a wire: on the one hand, “to manage the attacks that come from the White House.” And, at the same time, “continue to be the best possible allies.”
Europe cannot allow itself any other option, since, according to Areilza, “neither the Union nor the Member States have the means and the cohesion to cTo achieve in a short period of time the strategic autonomy with which to face the weakening of the transatlantic relationship and growing security threats, first and foremost Russian expansionism.”
To explain the Trumpist doctrine of foreign relations, the introduction to the Strategic Overview borrows the qualification “aggressive unilateralism”, of which he is the author Jake Sullivanformer National Security Advisor of the United States during the time of the previous tenant of the White House, Joe Biden.
“The second presidency of a disruptive and revanchist politician is a triple shock for the defense, economy and democracy of the continent,” concludes the introducer and director of the report.
Trump and Morocco
In the same work that analyzes global geostrategic trends, a chapter dedicated to the Maghreb focuses on the influence of Trump’s return to the White House in the closest area of strategic interest for Spain. Trump’s return is used by Morocco to pursue the “preferential treatment that Rabat aspires to in its relations with the US Administration”, while trying to “reinforce the country’s image as a Washington’s trusted ally”.
In this chapter, its author, the professor of Arab and Islamic studies at the University of Castilla-La Mancha Miguel Hernando Larramendipoints out how as a result of the new Trump era, “Rabat has strengthened its relations with Israel in the military and security sphere through the purchase of weapons, the transfer of technology in the aerospace sector, the manufacture of drones and the authorization to transit and stopover in Moroccan ports of ships with military material destined for Israel”.
In this context, the king of Morocco, Mohamed VI“tolerated the protest mobilizations against the Gaza genocide” and expressed solidarity with the victims “without breaking or questioning diplomatic, economic and security relations with Israel.”
The Moroccan relationship with Trump and Israel is an axis of reinforcement for its main objective: achieving international recognition for the seizure of Western Sahara. The author links this fact to a serious event of tension in the Strait of Gibraltar: “In this framework,” he says, “we must also place the entry into Ceuta in May 2021 of nine thousand Moroccan citizens, fifteen hundred of them unaccompanied minors, as an element of pressure to obtain the support of the Spanish Government to the Moroccan autonomy plan in Western Sahara.”
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