A study that analyzed data from thousands of Brazilian municipalities identified regions with greater potential for production and -fuel considered strategic for the decarbonization of emissions-intensive industrial sectors. The research shows that the country has favorable conditions to develop this new energy chain, but it also reveals an important challenge: the main production and consumption locations do not coincide geographically, which will require significant investments in transport and distribution infrastructure.
The results were in International Journal of Hydrogen Energy by Celso da Silveira Cachola and Drielli Peyerl. The work was developed at RCGI (Research Center for Innovation in Greenhouse Gases), one of the CPAs (Applied Research Centers) of Fapesp (São Paulo State Research Support Foundation), based at USP (University of São Paulo), in partnership with Shell Brasil and support from ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels).
DECARBONIZATION
According to Peyerl, from the IEE (Institute of Energy and Environment) at USP and the project “Energy transition through the lens of Sustainable Developments Goals” (Enlens), at the University of Amsterdam (Netherlands), the objective was to answer a central question for planning the energy transition in the country: “We wanted to identify which regions of Brazil have the greatest potential to produce and consume green hydrogen in the context of industrial decarbonization.”
Hydrogen has been identified as one of the most promising alternatives for reducing emissions in industrial sectors called, in English, “hard-to-slaughter” (difficult to reduce) – those in which decarbonization still faces major obstacles, whether due to technological, energy or economic limitations. These sectors include steelmaking, oil refining and part of the chemical industry. In these activities, hydrogen can replace fossil fuels in high-temperature processes or act as a raw material in chemical reactions.
When produced by electrolysis of water, using electricity from renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, solar or wind energy, it is called “green hydrogen”as it practically does not generate greenhouse gas emissions during the production process.
According to Peyerl, the choice of electrolysis as a reference in the study is due to the technological consolidation of this method: “Electrolysis is a relatively mature technology. When we analyze technological development, we use the so-called Technology Readiness Level [Nível de Maturidade Tecnológica]. And electrolysis is already at a high level of maturity, while other routes are still in experimental stages”.
Despite this, the researcher emphasizes that hydrogen should not be seen as a universal solution to all energy challenges. “Energy transition is diversification. In some sectors, hydrogen fits like a glove, especially in industrial processes that are difficult to decarbonize. In other cases, direct electrification can be more efficient and cheaper”it says.
DATA MAPPING
To map the development potential of this technology in Brazil, the researchers gathered data from 5,569 municipalities to assess the production potential and from 2,569 municipalities to estimate the industrial consumption potential. The analysis considered 6 main variables: geographic location of municipalities, proximity to energy infrastructure (electricity grid, gas pipelines and ports), industrial CO2 emissions, water security index, solar incidence and average wind speed.
This information was analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS) and unsupervised machine learning techniques, including k-means, hierarchical clustering and DBSCAN algorithms. The methodology combined statistical and spatial analysis to identify patterns in the Brazilian territory.
According to Peyerl, the method used starts from the overlap of different layers of geographic information: “The idea is to work with what we call a layered methodology. You create separate maps – for example, of solar potential, wind potential, energy infrastructure or industrial emissions – and then overlay these maps to identify regions where several favorable factors are concentrated.” This procedure allows us to visualize areas where, for example, large availability of renewable energy and high industrial demand for decarbonization coexist.
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION POLES
The results showed the existence of 7 clusters with high potential for green hydrogen production and 10 with greater potential for industrial consumption. The Northeast appears as the region with the greatest potential production capacity, thanks to the combination of high solar and wind energy resources. Consumption clusters are mainly concentrated in the South and Southeast regions, which are home to a large part of the Brazilian industrial park and record high levels of industrial emissions. This spatial difference creates a structural challenge for the development of the hydrogen economy in the country. “Today we are very focused on production, but we need to look at the entire value chain. The big challenge is to ensure that the hydrogen produced actually reaches the sectors that will use it”, emphasizes Peyerl.
One of the strategies discussed by researchers to overcome this spatial gap is the creation of hydrogen hubs – industrial hubs where production and consumption are close. “When you create a hub, you produce hydrogen close to the industries that will use it. This reduces energy losses and reduces transportation costs”comments Peyerl. According to the researcher, this model has been discussed in several countries as a way to accelerate the adoption of hydrogen in industry. Furthermore, the formation of these hubs can facilitate the planning of energy and logistics infrastructure, allowing investments to be concentrated in strategic regions.
The study also highlights the need to develop new transport and storage systems to make the hydrogen chain viable in Brazil. Alternatives include: gas pipelines adapted for hydrogen, maritime transport and conversion into derivatives, such as green ammonia. “For long distances, it is often preferable to convert hydrogen into green ammonia, because there is already know-how to transport ammonia on ships and adapted port infrastructure,” ponders Peyerl.
Another relevant issue is the energy cost of production. Hydrogen generation through electrolysis requires a large amount of renewable electricity, which reinforces the importance of locating production plants in regions with an abundance of solar or wind energy.
BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX
The study reinforces Brazil’s strategic position in the energy transition. The country has one of the most diversified and renewable energy matrices in the world. According to the BEN (National Energy Balance), prepared by EPE (Energy Research Company) and the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the participation of the main sources in the Brazilian energy matrix is as follows: oil and derivatives, 34.3%; sugarcane biomass (ethanol and bagasse), 18.0%; hydroelectric, 12.4%; natural gas, 12.2%; charcoal, 8% to 9%; mineral coal, 5.3%; nuclear, 1.4%; wind, 1% to 2%; solar, 1%; other renewables, 7% (base year 2023).
Note that around 45% to 50% of the Brazilian energy matrix is renewable, while the global average is something close to 15%. Furthermore, more than 80% of Brazilian electricity comes from renewable sources, a figure much higher than that of most industrialized countries. According to the National Energy Plan 2050, the incorporation of hydrogen could play an important role in the even greater decarbonization of the Brazilian energy matrix, especially in the industrial sector.
But, as Peyerl highlights, the country’s energy strategy must explore its diversity of resources: “Brazil has enormous potential for hydrogen, but also for electrification, biomethane, biomass and other energy routes. The challenge is to identify in each region which solution makes the most sense”.
The study was also supported by Fapesp through Research Grant – Young Researchers, granted to Peyerl.
This text was originally published by on April 6, 2026 and adapted for publication by Poder360.
