Hungary has changed, but it may not have been in the direction many expected. Orbán’s fall ends a political cycle that deeply marked the country and the European Union, but what will emerge in its place remains open. On the night that marks Hungarians’ biggest-ever trip to the polls, the big question is not just what ended. It is rather about what, silently, may be beginning
The clocks read 9:24 pm when Viktor Orbán stood on his podium in Budapest – usually set up and decorated in orange to celebrate yet another victory – to instead announce defeat. “The result of these elections is painful, but it is clear. I have already congratulated the winning party.” This is how 16 years of government, until now uninterrupted, ended. A long political cycle, marked by the concentration of power, the reconfiguration of institutions and a confrontational relationship with Brussels.
However, the history of this election is not written only by the fall of a leader. It is also written in the way it happened. These were the most attended elections ever in Hungary. In the first hours of voting, the numbers exceeded all previous records. Record after record. At 6:30 pm, the polls closed when 80% had already gone there to leave their ballots.
Head down and with few displays of enthusiasm. This is how Viktor Orbán presented himself on Sunday night. (Getty Images)
“This election was extrapolated and will be sold as a great European night, when what brought down Orbán was not the problem of Europe, nor of Ukraine or Russia. It was extreme corruption. It was the fatigue that Orban brought into the government”, argues Miguel Baumgartner. According to the International Relations specialist, the campaign was dominated by internal themes, namely accusations of enrichment and perceptions of state capture. “People weren’t voting for a more European Hungary. They were voting against multimillionaire Orbán.”
“Above all, this result means one thing: that everything that they were selling us for a long time, that Hungary was a dictatorship and that it was a state in which democracy did not work, after all it worked. And it worked so much that there was the possibility of changing the government leader without any major problems”, he adds.
When Péter Magyar finally took the stage, the contrast with Orbán’s restraint was evident. In front of a euphoric crowd, he began with a word that quickly became a symbol of the night: “We did it.” The tone was one of celebration and rupture. “Tisza and Hungary won these elections – not by a small margin, but by a very large margin. Together, we freed Hungary,” he said, adding that “the victory may not be visible from the moon, but it is visible throughout Hungary,” in a direct reference to Orbán’s 2022 victory speech.
With 98% of the votes counted, the winning party won 138 seats in Parliament, more than necessary to reach an absolute majority, against the 55 that remained for Orbán’s Fidesz. The far-right party Mi Hazánk was allocated six.
The speech by the country’s new prime minister brought together hundreds of attentive spectators. (Getty Images)
“Today they performed a miracle. Today Hungary made history”, he said, in front of a crowd that responded with applause and chants. “Hungarians said no to deceit, lies, manipulation and betrayal.” More than celebrating an electoral victory, the Tisza leader presented the result as a moment of national liberation – something that quickly found an echo in several European capitals.
“I don’t know if we can talk about a victory for Europe”
Ursula von der Leyen was the first to react and, through , wrote in Hungarian to speak of a “heart of Europe beating stronger”, in a reading that suggests a rapprochement between Hungary and the European project. However, this interpretation is far from consensual. “There is a clear defeat for Orbán, that is unequivocal. He is defeated across the board”, considers International Relations specialist Tiago André Lopes. “But I don’t know if we can talk about a victory for Europe.”
Prudence is related, from the outset, to the political configuration that emerges from these elections. Despite Fidesz’s defeat, the new parliament does not represent a clear ideological shift, but rather a reorganization within the same political spectrum. For the first time, all forces with parliamentary representation are positioned on the right, leaving out any left-wing alternative with electoral weight. “We are facing a parliament with three parties and all on the right – center-right, right and extreme right. There is not a single force on the left, not even close to that”, highlights Tiago André Lopes.
This is how the new Hungarian parliament was distributed at the end of Sunday night. The seats of the winning party are represented in blue, and those of the defeated party in orange.
This distinction becomes even more relevant when looking at Péter Magyar’s political profile. Despite presenting himself as a figure of rupture, the new leader has roots in the system he now replaces. “Anyone expecting a major change in foreign policy may be disappointed. Magyar comes from Fidesz, knows the system inside out and, on fundamental issues, there are no clear signs of change”, explains Tiago André Lopes.
In addition to the party voting against the $90 billion loan to Ukraine, the new prime minister promised in the past to call a referendum on Ukraine’s membership of the European Union.
“Magyar is not a great lover of the European project and European centralism as it exists. As a member of the European Parliament, he stood up against Europe several times”, argues Miguel Baumgartner.
If ideological change is uncertain, the concentration of power is its opposite. The electoral result gave Tisza a qualified majority capable of changing the Constitution without the need for broad consensus, a scenario that raises concerns among analysts.
“Playing reform?”
“They have 70% of parliament in their pockets. We are talking about a party that practically did not exist in parliamentary headquarters and that now controls two thirds of parliament and has the power to play with constitutional reforms. This gives it the power to do everything alone, including constitutional reforms”, warns Tiago André Lopes. “This is extremely dangerous. We don’t know if Magyar won’t have a drift. He’s new now.”
Images from this Sunday’s party on the streets of Budapest. (AP Photo)
The analyst also remembers that the party that Magyar represents presents itself as “populist, nationalist and conservative”, something that makes him go back to the beginning of the century and travel a few kilometers to remember Dmitry Medvedev. “There were also high expectations for Dmitry Medvedev in Russia. He was the man of democracy, he was the face. Now he is more radical than Vladimir Putin in some positions. I’m not saying Tisza will be that, but we don’t know.”
Also in the relationship with the European Union, changes are anticipated that are more in style than in substance. “Orbán was known for his very acrimonious style, he liked to clash with the structures of Europe. Then in fact Magyar, in this first phase, will play the game in a different way because he is younger, has less capacity and less prestige”, explains Tiago André Lopes. “The relationship will be less tense, more diplomatic, but I don’t know if it will facilitate the decision-making process and unlock several things. I think we will continue to have Hungarian vetoes on some issues, such as the energy issue.”
