This Tuesday, Lebanon sits at the negotiating table with Israel directly for the first time in more than four decades to try to put an end to violence and Israeli attacks and invasions, in very low-level talks that almost everyone considers doomed to failure even before they begin.
The Israeli ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, and his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, will meet in Washington six weeks before the start of a war that leaves more than 2,000 dead in Lebanon and seven days after the ceasefire in Iran from which Beirut has preferred to disassociate itself to maintain an independent position.
These are some keys to understanding the obstacles that the process faces and the main points of disagreement:
1. The ceasefire dilemma
Both negotiating teams already arrive at the room with different objectives for the day: Lebanon seeks to achieve a ceasefire that will give rise to later opening a more in-depth dialogue, while Israel is not even willing to address the possibility of a cessation of hostilities, according to Leiter.
For this reason, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who had been promoting this initiative since the start of the war, warned on Monday that the two sides will have to make concessions.
“There is now an opportunity to reach a sustainable solution, which is what Lebanon wants, but this cannot be unilateral. Israel must respond to Lebanese, Arab and international calls to cease its attacks on Lebanon and begin negotiations,” he said.
2. Hezbollah opposition
One of Lebanon’s main mantras has been that only the State has the right to negotiate on behalf of the country, once again slamming the door on the Shiite group Hezbollah, which faces Israel in its second war in just a year and a half.
On Monday, the leader of the movement, Naim Qassem, rejected the imminent “meaningless” talks with Israel and considered that a change in strategy like this requires a prior internal consensus among Lebanese.
“This negotiation is surrender, it is stripping Lebanon of its strength,” concluded the Shiite cleric, who made his first televised speech in several weeks coincide with the eve of the meeting in the United States.
An Israeli soldier descends from a military vehicle near the border between Israel and Lebanon, in an unidentified location in the north of his country, on April 13, 2026.
3. Impossible disarmament
The problem is not so much Hezbollah’s opposition to this process, as it was assumed willing to abide by a ceasefire within the framework of the Iranian initiative, as it is to achieve its disarmament, Israel’s main objective during the talks that will begin in a matter of hours.
The Lebanese government approved a disarmament plan last summer and redoubled its commitment to the measure after a unilateral attack by Hezbollah in early March sparked the current Israeli offensive against Lebanon.
However, the Shiite formation refuses to lay down its weapons, considering that Lebanon would be left unprotected and at the mercy of Israel, which leaves the Lebanese State with the only option of taking them away by force, potentially opening the door to the outbreak of internal violence that many fear, now more than ever.
4. Excessive demands
Just one day before the start of talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that he continues to seek the creation of a “solid and deeper security zone” in southern Lebanon, where he intends to control the entire strip between the de facto border and the Litani River.
The invasion of Lebanese territory with no end in sight, among other plans that Netanyahu does not seem willing to give up, such as depopulating and ravaging border villages, put Lebanon in a difficult position to negotiate.
Some experts believe that, for Israel, coming to the table would only be a way to show that it has done its part, without real intentions of finding a negotiated solution, and that Lebanon would be quite aware of this reality.
5. The Dead End Loop
Neither party has a roadmap drawn up, including American mediation, which in 2024 did manage to reach a ceasefire with contributions from Hezbollah and with its ally Nabih Berri, president of Parliament, as Lebanon’s main negotiator.
However, on Monday, Qassem once again cited the same requirements that he had been asking for during the 15 months that that cessation of hostilities lasted: the end of the Israeli attacks, the withdrawal of his forces from Lebanese territory and the reconstruction of southern Lebanon.
In all that time, their demands for dialogue on potential disarmament remained unfulfilled, as did the Israeli demands for total disarmament, in a whiting that is biting its tail with few options for unraveling in Washington.
