Flávio Bolsonaro’s progress in the polls has not been random or homogeneous. Data from the Genial/Quaest survey, released this Wednesday (14), show that the senator’s support base is beginning to take on a more defined shape, with a profile that combines economic dissatisfaction, income reduction and a search for an alternative to the current government.
The growth of the senator’s candidacy is directly linked to the migration of a voter considered decisive in polarized disputes, the urban middle class, according to the analysis of political scientist and director of intelligence at the Quaest institute, Guilherme Russo during Mapa de Risco, a political program from the InfoMoneythis Friday (17).
“There is a middle class electorate, urban middle class, very linked to the C2 class, which is increasingly frustrated with the Lula government, due to purchasing power, low purchasing power and inflation”, stated the scientist.
The breakdown by income shows one of the most relevant points of the analysis. While Lula has a very favorable performance in the population earning up to two minimum wages, the situation is reversed in other brackets. In the public range of 2 to 5 minimum wages, Flávio has 47% voting intentions, against 36% for Lula.
This group, which has already played a relevant role in previous elections, once again appears as the pendulum of the electoral process. This is a voter who directly depends on income from work, lives with debt and feels more intensely the pressure of the cost of living.
“He is a worker who depends a lot on income to live and is increasingly migrating to Flávio and abandoning Lula as a voting option”, added Russo.
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Economic perception
According to the analysis presented in the program, this voter’s behavior is less linked to macroeconomic indicators and more to everyday perception. The impact of inflation, especially in services and food, has weighed more than aggregate data.
“It’s about the supermarket, it’s the price of food that affects the population’s perception so much,” said Russo. “The feeling of not getting better is very strong.”
This diagnosis helps to explain why Flávio’s advance occurs even in a scenario of economic indicators considered stable. Voter reading depends more on individual experience than on official numbers.
Growth handles
In addition to income, the research also indicates relevant differences by demographic profile. Support for the senator grows more intensely among men and voters in an intermediate age group.
“We still see a difference in men voting for Flávio more than women voting for Flávio,” stated Russo.
As data from the latest Quaest survey showed, Lula leads among voters over 60 years old, with 45%, while Flávio has 28%. Among younger people, the difference is minimal: 34% to 33% for Lula. In the intermediate range, from 35 to 59 years old, the PT member appears with 36% and Flávio with 32%.
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The senator presents the best performance in a group that concentrates active income and greater exposure to economic fluctuations. For XP political analyst, João Paulo Machado, there is also a component of frustration accumulated throughout the current term.
“The general diagnosis is that voters are tired and frustrated with this third term of President Lula,” he stated.
“simple” voter
Although often classified as “moderate”, the voter who has migrated to Flávio Bolsonaro is described by analysts as more pragmatic than ideological.
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“Ordinary voters don’t have much articulation, they think very simply: what will be best for the country? Who will improve the quality of life?”, explained Russo.
This logic helps to understand the group’s volatility. The same voter who supported Lula in 2022, amid dissatisfaction with the previous government, is now considering an alternative given the perception of stagnation.
For João Paulo Machado, this movement also reflects the natural wear and tear of governments over time. “Fatigue surrounds President Lula’s image, political characters wear out over time,” he stated.
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The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
