The entered 2026 with a clear sign of misalignment between supply and demand in the months of January and February. While capacity has increased, passenger numbers have decreased and this combination is almost always a negative indicator for airline performance. On the supply side, there was moderate but relevant growth. The number of round-trip flights increased from 4,412 in 2025 to 4,514 in 2026, which represents 102 more operations, or an increase of 2.3%. Even more significant was the growth in seat capacity due to the use of larger planes: from 826,059 to 852,444, that is, 26,385 more seats available, corresponding to an increase of 3.2%.
However, this increase in capacity was not matched by demand. On the contrary, there was a drop in the number of passengers transported over the two months together, which means that flights departed and arrived, on average, with fewer passengers in 2026 than in 2025, indicating a lower occupancy rate. This descent has a direct and measurable impact. In 2026, not only were the additional 26,000 places largely unfilled, but part of the capacity that already existed in 2025 also became empty. In other words, the total number of unoccupied seats increased significantly from one year to the next. It is true that the adverse meteorological context in January and February 2026 will have contributed to this drop, mainly affecting last-minute demand and short-term trips. Still, this explanation is cyclical and does not solve the structural problem that these numbers highlight.
The underlying issue is the chronic difficulty in sustaining consistent demand levels outside of the peak season. The Algarve remains excessively dependent on seasonal tourism and the flow of Portuguese emigrants from that region, which leaves the airport vulnerable in the winter months. When supply grows – whether due to companies’ optimism or long-term strategy – the demand base does not keep up and the result is this: more empty seats, lower profitability and greater pressure for future adjustments.
If this trend repeats, airlines are expected to react by cutting capacity, reducing frequencies or even abandoning routes during the winter. To avoid this scenario, it is not enough to wait for better weather conditions or a spontaneous recovery in demand. It is necessary to create a more diversified economic base that is less dependent on seasonal tourism, capable of generating regular traffic throughout the year.
Basically, what these two months show is simple: the problem is not just the demand that failed in 2026, but the absence of a model that can guarantee full planes when the summer ends.
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