The pro-Russian candidate, , has clearly won in the early elections this Sunday in Bulgaria, the eighth in five years, according to the exit polls that were known at the close of the polling stations. However, they predict that he will need a partner to be prime minister and form a stable Government in this country of 6.5 million inhabitants.
The Progressive Bulgaria coalition, which calls itself left-wing and is headed by Radev, 62 years old and former commander of the Air Force, obtains around 37% of the votes, ahead of the conservative Citizens for European Development (GERB) formation, led by Boiko Borisov, three times prime minister since 2009, which is around 16%, always according to exit polls. Participation has exceeded 51%, a figure not particularly high when compared to other European countries, but much higher than in previous events.
Radev, who has certain similarities to the recently fallen Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in his pro-Russian rhetoric, could now negotiate an agreement with the pro-European alliance Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB). Although their positions coincide in the fight against corruption and oligarchy, there are important differences in foreign policy, such as support for Ukraine against the invasion of Russia.
The former head of state, a confessed admirer of Orbán, even suggested that Bulgaria could play a role in relaunching relations with the Kremlin, invoking its Slavic identity and Orthodox religion. Something that is feared in the community capital.
The former head of state condemned Brussels’ sanctions against Russia, arguing that military aid to kyiv prolongs the conflict and in 2023 he already entered into a tense direct confrontation with the Ukrainian president, during a meeting held in Sofia. In recent times, he has also denounced a decade-long security agreement signed between Bulgaria and Ukraine.
In fourth place in the elections is the Turkish minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS-New Beginning), led by the controversial Delyan Peevski, a powerful oligarch sanctioned for corruption by the United States and the United Kingdom. As the fifth force would be Vazrazhdane (Renaissance), a radical pro-Russian party, with 5.3%. Bordering the threshold of access to Parliament is the Bulgarian Socialist Party.
“We are prepared to consider different options so that Bulgaria has a stable government,” Radev simply noted after the exit polls were revealed. “We will do everything possible to avoid having to call elections again. That would be disastrous: it would mean going from crisis to crisis. We must work seriously.”
A few hours earlier, after voting, former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, of Let’s Continue the Change, had highlighted the importance of civic responsibility. Bozhidar Bozhanov, co-leader of Democratic Bulgaria (center-right), for his part called for the dismantling of what he described as a “captured state” and a stronger Bulgaria in a strong Europe.
Young vote
For many young people – those born between 1997 and 2012 – the scrutiny should push them to reformulate the political landscape after a chain of elections that generated hopelessness. Instead, the expectations of this generation may be truncated by the ambition of Radev, known for his opposition to the adoption of the euro and his refusal to help Ukraine militarily.
“We run the risk of sliding into the orbit of illiberal actors,” Alex Petkoff, Commercial Affairs Assistant at the British Council, tells EL PAÍS. “In the changing geopolitical landscape caused by , Bulgaria’s internal instability and strategic positioning make it a possible replacement for the Kremlin,” says this 23-year-old who actively participated in .
Petkoff, who is completing a master’s degree in security and defense, believes that the repeated inability to form a viable Executive has deepened institutional fatigue, which in turn has allowed “the acceptance of totalitarian and anti-institutionalist narratives and actors.” “These elections are not just about forming a Government, but a test of Bulgaria’s democratic resilience, its resistance to ‘malevolent’ foreign influence and the way it moves away from corruption,” he asserts.
The last few weeks have been very intense for Alex Tanev. Between meetings with voters, political debates and a strong presence on social networks, this 22-year-old young man carried out the work of observer this Sunday in one of “the most risky polling stations in the Pazardzhik region”, in the center of the country.
At the end of last year, Tanev was among thousands of young people who took to the streets to protest against the draft Budget that they perceived as a new boost to endemic corruption. These protests caused the resignation of the Government. “Now we will see if we can achieve real political change or if the efforts that culminated in the largest protests since the 1990s will be in vain,” emphasizes this law student. He distrusts Radev as prime minister, although he first hopes to put an end to the “oligarchic regime”: “I hope that the main enemy of the protests, Peevsky and Borisov, are eliminated in these elections,” he says.
The electoral campaign has been marked by mutual accusations between the parties about possible fraud, hundreds of arrests and investigations related to vote buying. At the same time, independent organizations have noted an increase in disinformation with pro-Russian content.
“Social media has become one of the main battlefields. There has been a lot of disinformation from pro-Russian accounts that have sought to erode trust in institutions and amplify anti-European sentiment, often exploiting existing social and economic frustrations,” explains Petkoff, who sees Generation Z voters as particularly “exposed to content spurred by algorithms, where manipulation is often subtle and persistent.”
