European aviation faces a concrete threat: fuel reserves may not be sufficient to meet demand in the coming months. The problem originates far from the continent, but is beginning to be felt at airports and in the travel plans of millions of passengers.
According to , a website specializing in economic and financial content, the sector may only have around six weeks of margin if the supply of crude oil from the Middle East is not restored. The warning comes in a context of blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main passage points for world oil.
The interruption of this strategic route, through which around a fifth of global daily consumption flows, is causing increasing pressure on so-called jet fuel, essential for airline operations. The shortage is not yet uniform, but signs of tension are accumulating.
Portugal among the most exposed
In Europe, the impact varies from country to country. France has the biggest imbalance between supply and demand, although it benefits from land links to supply hubs in the Netherlands and Belgium, which can soften the impact.
Portugal appears among the most vulnerable. Dependence on maritime transport and lower storage capacity place the country in a more fragile position. Estimates point to reserves that could last around four months, below other European countries such as Germany and Italy, with around seven months, or Denmark, with six.
This scenario gains particular relevance as summer approaches, a period of greater air traffic. Any disruption in supply tends to be amplified at this time of year.
Airlines have already started to anticipate measures. Ryanair admits reducing operations between June and August if fuel is rationed. The Lufthansa group is also evaluating containment scenarios. Recent data indicates that more than a thousand daily flights are being diverted due to geopolitical instability, increasing global consumption.
The consequences are already beginning to emerge outside of Europe. Cancellations and the need to reaccommodate passengers have been recorded in other regions, anticipating a possible chain effect.
Pressure on prices and operations
The pressure on fuel should be reflected in ticket prices. Before this escalation, an increase of close to 9% was already predicted. As the situation worsens, this value may rise.
Destinations dependent on aviation, such as islands and countries in southern Europe, are among the most exposed. Tourism, a key sector for several economies, could feel the effects if cuts in operations are confirmed.
At airports, signs of more restrictive management are beginning to emerge. In some cases, fuel is being prioritized for flights considered essential, such as medical connections or strategic operations.
The center of this crisis remains the Strait of Hormuz. With a reduced navigable width, it is one of the main arteries of global energy trade. Instability in the region has led operators to avoid the route, even when there are occasional signs of a truce.
Recovery, even in a reopening scenario, will not be immediate. Reestablishing supply chains could take several months.
According to the same source, the situation continues to evolve and remains dependent on geopolitical developments that are difficult to predict. For now, the aviation sector operates in a delicate balance, while passengers and companies wait for signs of stabilization.
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