Business interruption and the risk linked to the price of commodities, as well as the scarcity of materials, lead the ranking of corporate risks in Brazil, according to the 2026 Global Risk Management Survey by consultancy Aon, shared first-hand with the InfoMoney.
The survey brings together the perception of 2,941 executives from 63 countries and territories, with 155 Brazilian respondents. Even though it was carried out before the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the study shows a business environment pressured by macroeconomic and operational factors, especially in economies with a strong export base such as Brazil.
In this context, dependence on global trade routes and logistics infrastructure appears as a critical point, which helps explain why business interruption occupies the first position in the national ranking.
Another highlight is the exchange rate variation, which appears in 5th position among the main risks in Brazil, but does not appear in the global top 10. The impact is concrete: 67.4% of Brazilian companies surveyed reported financial losses associated with exchange rate fluctuations in the last 12 months.
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According to Alexandre Jardim, head of Commercial Risk Solutions for Brazil at Aon, the advancement of commercial and operational risks shows the increasing volatility and uncertainty of the business environment.
“In this scenario, the structured identification of risks, combined with effective management and mitigation strategies, is no longer just a defensive measure and has become a competitive differentiator. Companies that strengthen the resilience of their operations, especially in critical aspects such as the supply chain, are better prepared to face impacts and make more assertive decisions”, points out Jardim.
Top 10 current risks in Brazil vs. Global
| Ranking | Brazil | Global |
| 1 | Business interruption | Cyber attacks/data breach |
| 2 | Commodity Price/Scarcity Risk | Business interruption |
| 3 | Cyber attacks/data breach | Economic slowdown/slow recovery |
| 4 | Regulatory/legislative changes | Regulatory/legislative changes |
| 5 | Exchange rate variation | Increased competition |
| 6 | Increased competition | Commodity Price/Shortage Risk |
| 7 | Economic slowdown | Supply chain failure |
| 8 | Climate change | Damage to reputation/brand |
| 9 | Supply chain failure | Geopolitical volatility |
| 10 | Climate/natural disasters | Cash flow liquidity risk |
Climate risks are also gaining relevance in the country. Climate change and natural disasters appear among the top ten risks in Brazil, occupying 8th and 10th positions, respectively, but do not appear in the current global ranking. This signals a more acute concern in the local context.
In the digital field, cyber risk occupies the 3rd position in Brazil, while it appears in 1st place in the global ranking. Still, the study points to a low level of preparation. Only 24.7% of Brazilian companies have structured plans to deal with attacks or data leaks.
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Rising risks
The research also indicates changes in the risk hierarchy in the coming years. In the projection until 2028, commodity price risk takes the lead, closely followed by climate change and regulatory factors. This perspective reinforces the sensitivity of the national market to inflationary pressures on inputs and the environmental agenda, decisive factors for sectors such as agribusiness and industry.
See the main risks projected for Brazil over the next three years:
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- Commodity Prices and Material Shortages
- Climate change
- Regulatory and legislative changes
- Business interruption
- Exchange rate variation
Although it does not appear in the Brazilian top 10, geopolitical volatility appears in 9th place in the global ranking, already indicating global concern with this type of risk, even before the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East.
“The escalation of the conflict adds to an already complex global environment. Geopolitical instability continues to be one of the fastest growing risks for companies, with impacts that can extend to energy, transport, supply chains and even the availability of insurance”, points out Leonardo Coelho, CEO of Aon in Brazil.
According to him, the effects have already begun to appear in sectors such as maritime and aviation, with insurance repricing, route reviews and greater operational caution.
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