Trump’s polls fall to levels similar to those of George W. Bush also because of a war

The most recent polls show Donald Trump recording approval levels of around 30%, approaching historic lows similar to those of George W. Bush during the Iraq war. The management of the economy, inflation and the conflict with Iran is contributing to increased disapproval and a consistent downward trend

It was almost exactly around this time, 20 years ago, that George W. Bush’s approval polls began to crumble. And as Bush’s numbers in several polls fell into the 30s for the first time in late winter and early spring,:

History may be repeating itself with President Donald Trump in 2026. Just swap Iraq for Iran.

Three new polls released Tuesday showed Trump’s approval rating at around 30%: in a Reuters-Ipsos poll, a Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll and an AP-NORC poll. These follow an NBC News poll over the weekend that showed Trump hitting a new low of .

In the last month, eight of the nine monitored by CNN showed Trump at around 30%.

The only exception was a Fox News poll, which put Trump at 41%, but still indicated the worst numbers since 2017.

Let’s contextualize these numbers.

Trump Disapproval Hits New Highs

Not all polls show Trump reaching new lows in his approval rating.

Some institutes showed it slightly lower in the first year of office in 2017, or after the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

But Trump’s 62% average disapproval rating in “” — which aggregates the aforementioned quality polls — is higher than virtually any figure recorded in these previous periods.

The highest levels of disapproval of Trump in individual polls in 2017 were: in a Pew Research Center study, in a Quinnipiac University poll, and in Reuters-Ipsos polls. After January 6, it hit in a CNN poll, a Quinnipiac poll and a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Trump is now averaging these levels across all polls, suggesting that more Americans than ever oppose Trump.

The trend is consistent

And perhaps even more worrying for Trump, the trend in his second term has been remarkably consistent — consistently downward.

Although there may have been a general perception that Trump was quite unpopular in his first term, he recovered from the lows of 2017 to spend most of his presidency with an approval rating in the region of 40%, which is relatively normal for a president today. This happened before the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 presidential race.

Trump’s approval rating in his first term was, for the most part,

But in the second term, the numbers have been falling slowly but steadily.

This trend already existed before the war with Iran. But the war also appears to be entrenching some of Trump’s core weaknesses, withdrawing support from voters who had not previously abandoned him.

New lows in the economy

One of the main reasons appears to be the perception about his management of the economy, which the war with Iran — and the associated rise in prices — has led to new lows.

For example:

• A CNN poll late last month showed Trump’s economic approval
• A CBS News poll this month showed
• Strength in Numbers polls and showed the same.
• Trump’s disapproval of inflation now regularly hovers around 70%.

Inflation has long been Trump’s worst issue, with voters often saying he ignores the rising cost of living. But increasingly, polls show that the war with Iran is competing for that spot.

The NBC poll showed two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump’s management of the war with Iran — just slightly below the 68% who disapprove of his management of inflation.

And the previous CNN poll showed 67% disapproval of Iran’s management, against 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation.

Approaching Bush Territory

It is certainly possible that the trend will change and that a resolution to the war with Iran could help Trump.

But if the President’s approval is consolidated at around 30%, he will be in a very rare group. It would be a territory occupied in recent decades by .

When Bush fell to the 30% mark two decades ago, he was the first president to spend an extended period at that level since Jimmy Carter, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden, like Bush, too, but generally in the upper part of that range.

It’s not unusual for presidents to be unpopular these days; in fact, it has become almost the norm.

But Trump is entering very unusual and dangerous political territory.