Minas Gerais has become a kind of minefield for the presidential pre-candidate, say allies from the center interviewed by the Sheet. None of the scenarios presented to the senator are seen today as ideal to guarantee victory in the state, considered crucial for the national election.
Currently, Flávio does not have a guaranteed platform in . Supporting the governor is seen with fear because the current head of the state Executive is not showing success in the polls. The favorite senator so far is classified as inconsistent by a wing of the , and his own candidacy is considered a long shot.
Flávio to be his deputy. If successful, he would be led to support Governor Matheus Simões in his re-election attempt.
Another factor that raises fears about an alliance with Simões is the recent affiliation of senator Carlos Viana with the PSD. Thus, the current governor would need to choose between the PL’s pre-candidate for the Senate —deputy Domingos Sávio— and Marcelo Aro (PP), Zema’s former political coordinator, for the second vacancy.
The assessment in the PL is that Viana’s arrival congests the election for the Senate, given that he already has a presumed advantage by running for re-election. This way, Simões could not embrace, at the same time, the candidate Domingos Sávio and Marcelo Aro.
The option seen as most electorally viable, at this moment, would be to support a candidacy by Senator Cleitinho, who positions himself as an option for the Bolsonarist right. Flávio’s allies, such as the deputy (PL), however, discourage an alliance with the congressman.
The assessment is that Cleitinho is not in fact aligned with Bolsonarist agendas and that, once elected, he could become a competitor on the right. The PL even considered joining the senator to launch him into the government, but resistance from Nikolas and other leaders of the party prevented it.
Interlocutors from the party report fear of what they consider to be the unpredictable nature of the Republican senator, who has sometimes moved closer to Bolsonarism and, on other occasions, distanced himself.
Last October, Cleitinho entered into a collision course with the PL by stating that his debt to Jair Bolsonaro would already be “paid”, despite respecting him. The senator had been asked whether he would support a name nominated by the former president in the race for Palácio do Planalto. After negative repercussions, the parliamentarian apologized.
“If I think that I don’t have the same thoughts as this candidate that Bolsonaro supports, I don’t need to support, no. I am grateful to Bolsonaro. It’s not with his family, with his supporters, no. It’s with him. A gratitude that I have also paid and will pay by supporting and voting for him in 2022”, said Cleitinho at the time.
Another factor raised in the PL is that the failure of a possible Cleitinho government in Minas Gerais would make life difficult for the party in the state. One wing of the party understands that the state, with a debt of R$187 billion to the federal government, is a time bomb that could explode in Bolsonarism if Flávio supports a name with no experience in management.
The point is that, even without Flávio’s support, Cleitinho is considered competitive. The fear in the PL is that it will prevent Simões from advancing among the right-wing electorate and that they will divide votes, facilitating growth with the support of President Lula (PT).
Faced with this scenario of uncertainty, members of the PL indicate that it is currently likely to launch their own candidacy for government. The name of the party to run for Palácio Tiradentes is that of former president of Fiemg (Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais) Flávio Roscoe, who joined in March.
The second PL Senate vacancy was reserved for a composition, and could be occupied by a name to be nominated by Cleitinho or Simões, if Flávio decides to support one of the two. Cleitinho, as shown by Sheetgave signs that he will run for his ticket.
