Global beef exports are expected to grow in 2026, according to the most recent review by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), which raised its projections in the face of firmer international demand.
The global estimate for 2026 was raised to 13.81 million tons of carcass equivalent, an increase of 2.05% compared to the previous projection of December 2025, when the expected volume was 13.53 million tons. Still, the number remains below the 2025 result, which was 13.93 million tons, considered a recent record.
Despite the improvement in Brazilian projections, the report points to a downward revision in Chinese demand, the main destination for Brazilian beef. In December 2025, the expectation for imports from China in 2026 was 3.75 million tons of carcass equivalent. In the April update, this volume was reduced by 14.7%, to 3.20 million tons, a drop of more than 0.50 million tons.
If the new estimate is confirmed, the volume imported by China in 2026 will be the lowest since 2021, indicating a relevant slowdown in the main global beef market.
In the first quarter of 2026, fresh products totaled 701.64 thousand tons, an increase of 19.7% compared to the same period in 2025, when 586.36 thousand tons were registered.
Meat production in the USA
In the same report, the USDA confirmed the drop in the United States in 2025, amid a lower supply of animals and adjustments in the production structure. Total red meat production totaled 53.8 billion pounds, down 2% year-on-year.
Beef reached 26.1 billion pounds, down 4%, while pork reached 27.6 billion pounds, up 1%, showing stability in the segment.
The data also reinforces the regional concentration of production. Iowa accounted for 16.6% of the total, followed by Nebraska with 14.4%, Kansas with 10.4% and Texas with 8%, which together account for almost half of the United States’ red meat production.
In industry, there was a slight expansion in production capacity. The number of plants under federal inspection increased from 1,089 to 1,127 units, while the total number of establishments reached 2,923, with an increase of seven plants. Texas led the way in opening new units inspected, with nine new registrations, totaling 78 plants.
