Beef prices continue to rise on the domestic market. Report from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) shows that the bovine carcass (comprised of the hindquarters, forequarters and needle tip of the ox) is traded at R$ 25.41 per kilo wholesale in Greater São Paulo, an increase of 4% in the first three weeks of April.
When the values are adjusted for inflation, allowing a better and fairer comparison with previous years, the record becomes even more evident.
The average of R$25.05 per kilo, recorded in April, is the highest in Cepea’s historical series starting in 2001. The value is 11% above that recorded in April 2025, and 44.8% higher compared to the same period in 2024, when beef cattle farming was experiencing a period of decline in the livestock cycle and a greater supply of animals.
Escalation of prices in the domestic market
Heated exports and restricted slaughter put pressure on prices. After consecutive years of an increase in the slaughter of females, resulting in a lower production of calves, the supply of animals ready for slaughter is reducing. The increase in Brazilian beef exports has absorbed a significant part of production. Today the international market absorbs 35% of production. With fewer “carcasses available” in the domestic market, and firm external demand, the rise in wholesale and retail prices tends to follow.
Analyst Fernando Henrique Iglesias, from Safras & Mercado, says that the sector should approach an upward limit. “The low purchasing power of consumers in the domestic market can act as a ceiling for new readjustments in retail, even if supply and export pressures remain firm” says Iglesias. The increase in beef prices is reflected in Brazilians’ dishes. Consumers are looking for cheaper alternatives to keep animal protein in the diet. Chicken, eggs and
After reaching the highest historical price, the price of arroba, paid to livestock farmers, registered a drop in this second half of April
In the field, the movement was reversed. At this point, the question is: will it be on time? On April 15th, the arroba was quoted at R$ 367,30, the highest nominal value within the Cepea historical series. However, in just nine days, the price lost R$4.70 in value and was traded at R$362.00 on Friday (24). These values are based on negotiations in the physical market in São Paulo.
According to Hyberville Neto, an analyst at HN Agro, the The reduction in the population’s purchasing power in the second half of the month is usually a point of caution for the flow of meat on the domestic market. Meatpackers take advantage of the moment of lower demand to “test” lower prices. “Furthermore, doubts regarding which quota should be exhausted shortly after the middle of the year and recent high price levels in recent months have contributed to an increase in the supply of cattle resulting in this adjustment movement in the market”, adds Neto.
Movement in the field dictates prices
Ranchers resist selling finished animals at lower prices. But with With the dry season approaching and the decline in pasture quality, the tendency is for deliveries to increase in the coming weeks. Cepea researcher, Thiago Bernardino de Carvalho, recalls that “looking at the last nine years, only in May 2020 did the price of cattle not decline.” In 2020, the movement to retain females began, turning the livestock cycle around, given better prices for meat.
“Traditionally, the transition from autumn to winter marks the period of weaning of calves on farms and, consequently, the largest delivery of females. With less rain, less pasture and the need to save cash… the supply of animals for slaughter tends to increase in the coming weeks, putting pressure on prices.” Thiago also highlights that the The price of cattle rose very quickly in 2026 and it is natural for it to settle down a little. This year alone, the arroba has increased by more than 25%.
Marked mainly by the influence of the weather, the decline has been greater in the futures market. The best price for cattle, on B3, was recorded on April 6th: R$ 372,70. This Friday (24) the April contract closed at R$359.00. For June, the futures market prices the arroba at R$ 338.90, given this specific estimate of greater animal deliveries. But the tendency in times of turn of the livestock cycle follows: more expensive meat in the physical and future markets and also on consumer shelves.
