Planning a vacation this summer means facing a context of uncertainty and high prices. The blocking of Strait of Hormuz drags already serious consequences for the global economy and key sectors such as international trade, logistics and energy, and as summer approaches, it also puts the turismo. The pressure due to fuel shortages and the increase in the price of kerosene is especially affecting Europe, both those who visit it and those preparing for their holidays abroad.
After almost two months of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, energy markets face a constant volatility. Among the affected products is the kerosenethe fuel that powers airplanes. Europe is especially exposed to the shortage of this fuel: it imports between 30% and 40% of the kerosene it consumes, and half comes from the Gulf countries. Spain, with greater production capacity of its own, is somewhat more protected than its European partners, although it depends on how the war progresses and how long it lasts, it could be equally affected.
Airlines already warned in early April of the problems that a lack of supply could cause. In that sense, the director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birolassured the Associated Press that Europe had “perhaps six weeks of jet fuel left.” In addition, he warned of possible flight cancellations if oil supplies continue to be interrupted by the war. Since then, KLM has suspended 160 flights and Lufthansa, 20,000, with the aim of save fuel heading into the peak season and protect your profit margins.
The severity of war’s impact on holidays and summer voyages will depend on whether the conflict continues or if, on the contrary, negotiations between the American and Iranian parties in Islamabad reach a successful conclusion and maritime traffic through Hormuz is restarted. In any case, three scenarios open in which geopolitical issues would affect summer season travel.
Reopening of Hormuz and return to normality
In case of agreeing to an end to the war and the total unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil tankers stranded in the maritime passage It would still take more than a month to arrive in Europe. “If it reopened and stayed open [el estrecho de Ormuz]I still think it would take several months to recover the supply level [de combustible para aviones] necessary,” he said Willie Walshdirector general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), at a press conference in Singapore earlier this month.
If the flow of oil and the capacity to refine it were to start up again, which would outline the best scenario, Travel would not be endangered by massive flight cancellations. Even so, prices would remain high. In fact, higher fuel prices have been the reason airlines have given for canceling flights. According to the International Air Transport Association, jet fuel prices increased 103% at the end of March compared to the previous month.
Partial reopening and supply imbalances
However, one partial resolution of the conflict before summer and a half-hearted reopening of Hormuz is the scenario that, so far, seems most plausible to most analysts. This would imply a uncertain supplywhich would affect both regional flights with less influx, and to a lesser extent long-distance routes. “Los flights with poor performance [podrían] cancel and some airports [podrían enfrentar] periodic fuel restrictions,” he maintains in a recent report on the subject Frédéric Deleauvice president for Europe of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers Associations.
Furthermore, in this case the prices would remain equally high. In fact, some airlines have already expressed their intention to shift the burden of the fuel increase to the consumer. United Airlines warned this Wednesday that the company will increase ticket prices by up to 20%as reported by its CEO, Scott Kirby, in the presentation of the company’s quarterly results. The airline aims to “recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel prices as quickly as possible,” Kirby said. Along these same lines, International Airlines Group (IAG), owner of British Airways, Iberia or Flighthas warned of price increases.
If the war continues
If the war continues and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists through the summer, the crisis due to lack of fuel would seriously threaten air traffic and would require emergency measures such as a possible kerosene rationing or the need to share reserves between European countries, something that the EU Transport Commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, put on the table and to which the Spanish government has shown itself willing. The European Commission has ruled out a more serious scenario affecting EU airports, although it continues to work on contingency plans.
However, the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, declared in an interview with Sky News this Wednesday that it is “It is very likely that many people’s vacations will be affected, either by flight cancellations or by very, very expensive tickets.”“.
Subscribe to continue reading
