“We have full control of” he wrote on social networks. The paradox is that Iran has also announced that it controls the Straits and has closed them. Actually both countries control the Straits in a different way. Those with a naval blockade are not allowed in and out, while Iran controls passage in.
But in his case there is the huge thorn of mines. Mines are inexpensive to build and extremely expensive and time-consuming to defuse.
Trump recently wrote that he has ordered to “shoot and kill” any ship, no matter how small, that lays mines in the Straits. And that American minesweepers are clearing the Straits and their activity will triple.
But how feasible is this “cleaning”?
In the first place, it is not clear how many mines and what kind Iran has planted. According to military intelligence, Iran planted about 20 mines two weeks after the war began. The US Defense Intelligence Agency.
There are four main categories of mines. Bottom mines, which detonate when a ship passes over them, moored mines, which are fixed to the bottom by chain or cable and stand at a certain depth near the surface, drift mines, which move freely with the sea currents, and leech mines, which are manually attached to the hull of a ship.
The Americans estimate that Iran has used seabed mines and moored mines.
The “danger zone” doctrine
The Straits of Hormuz are 167 kilometers long and 39 kilometers wide at their narrowest point. The Revolutionary Guards released a “danger zone” map on April 9 that suggests a large, central section of the waterway is strewn with mines.
In this way they force ships to use a certain route that they set, choosing who can pass. There are numerous reports that in some cases they are asking for transit fees, while in Iranian media they have announced that they have already received a payment, in cash, without mentioning the amount or its origin.
Assuming mines are laid, how are they “cleared”?
There are two main categories. One is the “hunting” of mines which involves their detection and identification using high frequency sonar, underwater drones and helicopters. The second is mine-sweeping, i.e. the destruction and deactivation of mines.
Depending on the type of mine there are different methods of neutralization such as acoustic devices, which make mines explode because they think a ship is passing, and cable cutters, where the mine rises to the surface and is destroyed with fire and expendable underwater robots.
I mean, it’s not simple. And all of the above presupposes that there will be safe access to the area of operations, something very difficult given Iran’s coastline that makes it easy for it to operate throughout the region.
The cleaning schedule
The US Central Command (USCENTCOM), as early as April 11, informed that US Navy guided missile destroyers conducted operations to create a new passage and that they will soon share this safe path with the shipping industry to encourage the free flow of trade. However, soon is a relative concept.
According to confidential Pentagon estimates leaked to the press -which it does not confirm-, to neutralize the mines.
It is therefore a difficult, complex, expensive and time-consuming process. Even if the war magically ended tomorrow morning, demining will take a long time, giving Iran a strategic advantage.
The US has experienced a similar scenario before, with the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Despite its military superiority, in the field of demining it had to ask for the help of its allies. And this time Trump has appealed for help, also because the US specialized anti-mine forces have been “atrophied” for several decades.
Countries such as France, England, Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands have the technology and are willing to contribute to an international initiative to clear the Straits of mines. However, the countries that want to participate have made it clear, in different tones, that this is a defensive initiative, which does not signal their involvement in the US-Iran war, and that operations will proceed when there is a sustainable ceasefire and adequate security conditions.
In short, the minefield of the Straits will take a long time to return to its former state.
