The last week exposed what was already possible to notice between the lines within the Bolsonarist camp. he publicly broke with the ideological hard core of Bolsonarism, including Allan dos Santos, Kim Paim and Paulo Figueiredo, and Flávio tried to balance himself and was then countered by Kim Paim. The episode is the most visible point of a reconfiguration that has been underway for months, and the hypothesis that the data supports is that the current tension is not cyclical and has existed for more than a year.
Nikolas’ rise as a cadre with his own base generated small frictions since the beginning of 2025, and Eduardo’s movement in the United States eroded the relationship between the ideological core and the political cadres of the Bolsonarist right. The dispute between Carol De Toni and Carol De Toni for the Senate seat in Santa Catarina, with the direct participation of Ana Campagnolo criticizing the family, revealed that allies close to Michelle and Nikolas operate outside the clan’s tutelage. The rise of Tarcísio as a possible candidate with its own logic, the recent episode of Michelle’s makeup artist publicly criticizing Flávio, all these episodes point to the dynamic that Bolsonarism stopped operating as a bloc some time ago. However, this week the fracture became exposed.
Monitoring data from more than 100,000 public groups by Palver shows that this fracture circulates with intensity in right-wing groups. Among the actors analyzed, Flávio reaches this moment with the most balanced balance of all, exactly 50% approval and 50% rejection in the messages positioned about him. The number reflects an implicit command for the less ideological right: direct attacks on Flávio will be treated as treason. For this reason, no major right-wing actor has dared to attack him until now.
Nikolas Ferreira finds himself in the worst scenario, with more than 68% message rejection. The most relevant thing about this information is that most of this rejection does not come from the left, but from the Bolsonarist right. The messages accurately describe the split. “Nikolas doesn’t share, doesn’t mention anything about Flávio. Flávio came to leadership alone, without Nikolas’ help. Nikolas is being held accountable for this”, says a message that circulated in multiple groups. Another is more direct: “Nikolas is boosting everyone who hates Flávio.” The recurring reading is that the deputy’s silence in relation to the senator is deliberate and that he builds his own political capital by dispensing with family protection.
The pressure on Flávio comes from another flank simultaneously. has a 53% approval rating for positioned messages, the best balance among competitors in the conservative field. More relevantly, the volume of mentions of Zema is increasingly approaching the volume of mentions of Flávio. Until recently, Zema was treated as a regional candidate without national viability, and therefore went without significant attacks from Bolsonarism. His recent tension against and circulates him with a tone of combativeness that Flávio has not adopted. “If it were Zema in the 2nd round, he would already be ahead of Lula”, says a message responding to the Datafolha survey. Another states the problem clearly: “The guy at least has a project, I haven’t seen a project by Flávio until today.”
Zema’s growth creates a tactical opportunity for the dissident core of Bolsonarism. Supporting him on specific issues, without formally breaking with the family, allows this group to test the hypothesis of the viability of a conservative right without the surname. Nikolas and other members of the dissent can boost Zema on certain flags without appearing traitorous to the base. But this type of positioning needs to be surgical because voices from the ideological hard core, like Kim Paim, talk directly to the base and seek to denounce these movements.
A few months before the elections, a more open movement of separation from the family at this time could produce a “civil war” within the right that significantly increases the advantages of Lula, who already operates with the machine, with complete cohesion in the field and with a party window absorbing competitive positions for the Senate. This scenario increasingly weakens Flávio’s candidacy, since, if he fails to excite and unite those who are already in his camp, it makes it much more difficult to build militancy that makes a difference in the electoral process.
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