Analysts consider a scenario in which exports do not return to normal levels until the end of July
He warned on Monday (April 27, 2026) that oil could reach US$ 120 per barrel later this year, taking the price of the commodity to the highest level since the ceasefire in the conflict between the United States and Iran, by the North American president (Republican Party) at the beginning of this month. The information is from .
Commodity analysts at the bank estimate that, in their base scenario, Brent oil will trade at an average of US$90 a barrel in the last quarter of 2026, compared to a previous projection of US$80, if oil outflows from the Middle East normalize by the end of June. If exports do not return to normal levels by the end of July and there is a “persistent reduction” of production capacity, oil could average almost US$120 in the 4th quarter.
According to the FTGoldman Sachs expects WTI (West Texas Intermediate), used in the USA, to reach US$83 a barrel in the 4th quarter in its base scenario, compared to the previous projection of US$75.
Navigation through the region remains practically at a standstill, almost 2 months after the start of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. There is free movement of oil tankers and other vessels through the sea route.
Oil prices have soared more than 20% since April 17 when peace talks between the 2 countries stalled. Brent was close to $120 a barrel on more than one occasion in March, although it quickly retreated each time.
“Prices remain below the late March peak, likely because market expectations of Hormuz reopening have reduced the risk premium and led to destocking”Goldman analysts declared, according to FT.
Longer-dated Brent futures show the market still expects oil prices to fall, with December futures trading at around $85.80 a barrel.
The bank’s analysts stated that there would be “scars” long-term production capacity in the Middle East of around 500 thousand barrels per day, mainly due to. They also warned that the economic consequences of higher energy values would be greater than the nominal price of oil suggests, because of the risks of product shortages and “unprecedented scale of the shock.”
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