The governor () surpasses the oppositionist () in all first and second round scenarios tested for the election to the Government of according to a new Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (29).
The current holder of Palácio dos Bandeirantes scores 38% in the first round, against 26% for the former Minister of Finance of (PT). Next come (Missão) and the former mayor of Santo André Paulo Serra (), both with 5%.
Undecided voters account for 13%, and whites, null votes and declarations of non-voting account for 13%.
The picture is similar in an alternative scenario that does not consider Paulo Serra’s participation. In it, Tarcísio records 40% of intentions, Haddad, 28%, and Kim, 5%. Undecided voters maintain 13%, and whites, invalid votes and non-votes are 14%.
In this configuration, the governor would have more votes than his opponents combined, which would end the dispute in the first round. With Paulo Serra in the race, Tarcísio’s rivals have 36%, tied with him in terms of margin of error.
As the Panel’s column showed, Kim hopes that she will capture part of Tarcísio’s votes and make a second round between the current governor and the former Finance Minister viable.
The national coordinator has said that he has not yet decided whether he will run for the Government of São Paulo or seek re-election. THE Sheet he said he will take the decision, in common agreement with the party, which has just been created.
In a possible second round between the two main competitors for the São Paulo Government, Tarcísio beats Haddad by 49% to 32%.
The research included 1,650 home and face-to-face interviews with voters in São Paulo from April 23 to 27. The confidence level for the estimates is 95%, and the maximum margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points. The survey is registered under code SP-03583/2026.
Haddad and Tarcísio faced each other in , in 2022, when the former minister of () surpassed the PT member.
Among all the names tested, that of Lula’s former Finance Minister is the most rejected. 58% say they know him and wouldn’t vote for him. The current governor is rejected by 38%, Paulo Serra, by 31%, and Kim, by 19%.
Assessment
The survey indicates a worsening in the assessment of the Tarcísio government in the state. Management is seen as excellent or good by 39%, compared to 45% in the previous survey, from August 2025. They classify the government as bad or terrible 19% compared to 15%, and see it as regular 35% compared to 29% before.
Senate
The survey also heard from respondents about their voting intentions for senator. () leads with 14%, technically tied with (PSB), which has 12%.
() and () have 8% and 6%, respectively, while André do Prado (PL) scores 5% and José Aníbal (PSDB), 4%.
In an alternative scenario with (Rede) instead of Márcio França (PSB), the former minister of appears with 12%, also tied with Tebet in the lead, who maintains 14%.
With this configuration, Derrite has 8%, Salles and do Prado, 6% each, and José Aníbal, 4%.
