The President chooses the path of prolonged siege, betting everything on his complete economic blockade.
Rejecting both a resumption of bombing and a retreat, the White House is seeking “maximum pressure” to force Tehran into a nuclear capitulation it has avoided for decades.
Despite the political cost of increased oil prices and the risk of a global recession, Trump sees the blockade as bringing the regime to the brink of collapse. It is a high-stakes strategy: either Iran will buckle under the weight of economic impoverishment, or it will force them into a new flare-up of war in the Persian Gulf.
In recent meetings, including a debate Monday at the Chamber of Commerce, Trump has chosen to continue to squeeze Iran’s economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from its ports.
He assessed his other options – resuming bombing or withdrawing from the conflict – , officials said.
The political and financial cost
But continuing the blockade also prolongs a conflict that has raised gas prices, hurt Trump’s poll ratings and further darkened Republican prospects in the midterm elections. It has also caused the lowest number of crossings since the start of the war.
Since ending the major bombing campaign with the April 7 ceasefire, Trump has repeatedly backed away from escalating the conflict, making room for diplomacy after previously threatening to destroy all of Iran’s civilization. But he still wants to tighten the ropes on the regime until it gives in to its main demand: the dismantling of all of Iran’s nuclear activities.
The rejection of the Iranian proposal
On Monday, Trump told his advisers that Iran’s three-step proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hold nuclear talks for the final phase proved that Tehran was not negotiating in good faith, the Wall Street Journal reported.
For now, Trump is comfortable with an indefinite embargo, which he wrote Tuesday on Truth Social is pushing Iran toward a “state of collapse.” A senior US official said the blockade was proving to be crushing Iran’s economy – which is struggling to store its unsold oil – and sparked a new approach from the regime to Washington.
Trump’s decision represents a new phase of the war and highlights the fact that the president, who is always looking for a quick and easily “marketable” victory, lacks a magic solution.
The Dilemma: Exit or Escalation?
The unilateral cessation of hostilities offers a quick exit from the conflict and relief to the US and world economies. But Iran’s proposal last weekend would allow Tehran to set the terms of that exit.
A resumption of hostilities, meanwhile, would further weaken a battered Iran, but it would likely react by wreaking more havoc on the Gulf’s energy infrastructure, inflating the cost of the war. The blockade shrinks the Islamic Republic’s funds but commits US forces to a longer deployment in the Middle East, with no guarantee that the regime will capitulate.
Regime Endurance and “Maximum Power”
“Iran calculates that its ability to withstand and circumvent the blockade outweighs the American interest in preventing a wider energy crisis and possibly a global recession,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert. “A regime that massacred its own citizens to silence protests in January is fully prepared to impose economic hardship on them now.”
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US had met the military objectives of Operation Epic Fury and that “thanks to the successful blockade of Iranian ports, the United States has maximum leverage against the regime.”
Internal disputes in Washington
The lack of a clear path forward is leading some US officials to say that the conflict will likely not end with either a nuclear deal or a resumption of war. Trump receives conflicting advice: Sen. Lindsey Graham calls for sustained pressure, while business leaders worry that the closed Hormuz will be a political “death knell” ahead of the November election.
Officials say Trump is not yet willing to drop his demand that Iran suspend its nuclear enrichment for 20 years. “Why accept the Iran deal while you’re still waiting to see if you can cause serious economic problems through the embargo?” commented Eric Brewer, a former US intelligence analyst.
The role of hardliners
Despite hopes for talks in Pakistan, negotiations have stalled. On Monday, Iran requested time for consultations with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Mediators remain skeptical, however, as both sides believe time is on their side.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted another difficulty: the internal power struggle in Iran. “The hardliners have absolute power. Our negotiators don’t just negotiate with Iranians; those Iranians then have to negotiate with other Iranians to find what they can agree on.”
