Allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in Congress already consider the overturning of the vetoes on the project that deals with the dosimetry of sentences as likely, in a vote scheduled for this Thursday, in a joint session of deputies and senators. The internal assessment is that the opposition gathers enough votes to reverse the presidential decision, which could impose a new defeat on the government soon after the rejection of Jorge Messias’ name to the Federal Supreme Court (STF).
Members of the government base admit a lack of coordination and say there is no willingness to mobilize political capital in an attempt to maintain the vetoes.
An interlocutor linked to the government stated that the issue was, in practice, “handed over to God”, indicating that there will be no relevant effort to hold back Lula’s decision.
The analysis of the vetoes will take place in a session called by the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), bringing together the two Houses, as provided for in the constitutional rite. The expectation among parliamentarians is a comfortable majority for the overthrow.
The project in question deals with the dosimetry of sentences and could benefit, among others convicted of the acts of January 8, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The possibility of reversing the vetoes is seen as another political setback for Planalto in a week marked by defeat in the STF.
According to allies, part of the government’s low mobilization is explained by the concentration of efforts in trying to approve Messiah’s appointment to the Court. With the priority focused on the hearing and the vote in the Senate, the issue of dosimetry ended up taking a backseat.
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The strategy, however, did not work and Messias ended up being rejected by the senators. He received just 34 votes, seven less than needed to be approved, and ended up imposing a historic defeat on the PT member.
Rapporteurs of the proposal in both Houses, deputy Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade-SP) and senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC) state that there are enough votes to overturn the vetoes.
According to Paulinho, coordination with party leaders has been intensified since last week to guarantee the result.
— We have to talk to the leaders so that we can overturn the veto and that these people who were arrested can be released — he said.
The move to reverse the decision also includes attempts to reduce possible side legal effects. Parliamentarians assess that overturning the vetoes could impact sections of the legislation and benefit those convicted of other crimes, such as murder and rape.
To avoid this scenario, deputies are articulating the approval of a new project that would reinforce the reduction of sentences provided for in other legislation, even with the veto overturned. The urgency of the proposal has already been approved by the Chamber, which allows direct voting in plenary.
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Author of one of these initiatives, deputy Paulo Abi-Ackel (PSDB-MG) states that the measure seeks to avoid a “setback”.
The overturning of the vetoes is also seen by parliamentarians as a way of imposing a new setback on the government after the defeat involving Messias. The movement is interpreted as a political message from Congress to Planalto.
— It will be a divided veto, with votes on both sides. Let’s take a look, you need to vote in both Houses by a simple majority, so it’s a veto that doesn’t require such a qualified quorum to be overturned — said senator Renan Filho (MDB-AL).
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Mayor Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) also signaled support for the overthrow.
— The STF itself was the one who judged these people and could, with the veto overturned, reinterpret the sentences. Decide on the reduction so that practically all people who are still imprisoned can return to their homes under a regime other than the closed one — he stated, in an interview with CNN.
One of the alternatives discussed by government allies is to appeal to the STF in case of defeat in Congress, questioning the constitutionality of the measure. Still, this possibility was not structured as a concrete strategy.
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— There may be a party that appeals, but it is a well-resolved issue. During this entire period, no minister called me to speak against the project. On the contrary, some even praised it — said Paulinho da Força.
The parliamentarian also criticized the presidential veto.
— The veto was a bit of revenge from President Lula, which I think didn’t go over well. That’s why we need to take it down,” he said.
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Within the government, the tendency is for a possible judicial reaction to only be assessed after the result of the vote in Congress, given the assessment that the political scenario is already consolidated.
