Today is the 60-day deadline for the president to seek congressional approval to declare or otherwise cease military operations, but it is very likely that the date will pass without changing the course of a conflict that has turned into a sea-lane stalemate.
As Reuters reports, the end of the war seems extremely unlikely.
Instead, analysts and congressional aides said they expected Trump to tell Congress he intended to push for a 30-day extension or ignore the deadline, with his administration arguing that the current ceasefire with Tehran marked the end of the conflict.
As with most politics in a deeply divided Congress, the war powers have become intensely partisan, with Democrats calling on Congress to reassert its constitutional right to declare war and Republicans accusing Democrats of trying to use the War Powers Act to weaken Trump.
Democrats have tried repeatedly since the war began on Feb. 28 to pass resolutions that would compel Trump or get approval from Congress. But Trump’s Republicans, who hold slim majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, have almost unanimously rejected them.
Republicans blocked a sixth such attempt in the Senate on Thursday, a day before a deadline for war powers, although Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who had voted against previous resolutions, became the second member of her party to support the measure, along with Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has supported all related resolutions.
Under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, the president can only conduct military action for 60 days before ending it, seeking congressional approval, or seeking a 30-day extension due to “compelling military necessity concerning the security of the Armed Forces of the United States.”
The conflict with Iran began on February 28, when Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran. Trump formally notified Congress 48 hours later, triggering the 60-day deadline that expires on May 1.
Fragile ceasefire
Trump was to be briefed on Thursday about plans for new military strikes against Iran to force it out, a US official told Reuters.
If fighting resumes, Trump can tell lawmakers that a new 60-day cycle has begun, something presidents from both parties have done repeatedly since Congress passed the War Powers Act, overriding then-President Richard Nixon’s veto, in response to the Vietnam War.
And that conflict was not authorized by Congress.
The administration may also argue that May 1 is not the deadline because of the ceasefire announced by Trump on April 7. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate hearing on Thursday that it was his understanding that the 60-day “clock” was stopped during the ceasefire.
Democrats disputed that claim, saying there is no such provision in the War Powers Act.
Iran said on Thursday that if Washington renewed its attacks, it would respond with “long and painful strikes” against US positions, complicating Washington’s hopes for an international alliance aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Polls show that war with Iran is unpopular with Americans, six months before the November elections that will determine who controls Congress next year.
Trump’s approval rating fell to the lowest level of his current term this month, as Americans resent the cost of living and blame the war for rising prices.
Still, Trump maintains a strong grip on his party, and few Republicans have opposed his policies. In addition, Republicans strongly support Israel, which also attacks Iran, and welcome the weakening of Iran, a staunch enemy of the United States.
“It’s partisanship, plain and simple,” said Christopher Preble, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. “Republicans refuse to go against the president, simple as that.”
“Active Conversations”
The White House has not said how it plans to proceed or whether it will ask Congress to authorize the Iran campaign.
“The administration is in active talks with Capitol Hill on this issue. “Members of Congress trying to make political gains by usurping the authority of the commander in chief of the Armed Forces would undermine the US military overseas, which is something no elected official should want,” a White House official said on condition of anonymity.
The United States Constitution states that only Congress, not the president, can declare war, but this restriction does not apply to short-term operations or to deal with an immediate threat.
Some Republicans who have voted against the war powers resolutions said they may reconsider their stance after May 1.
Republican Sen. John Curtis of Utah published an op-ed saying he supported Trump’s actions but would not support continued military action beyond the deadline without congressional approval.
Others said they would take a wait-and-see attitude.
Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican Senate majority leader, said it would be “ideal” if Washington and Tehran could reach a peace deal.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has co-signed resolutions seeking to end the war.
“Republicans know that Trump’s handling of this war has been disastrous. They see how much Americans are suffering right now,” he said in a speech to the Senate, referring to the sharp increases in the prices of gasoline and other goods.
“How many war powers resolutions must Democrats file before Senate Republicans do the right thing?” Schumer concluded.
