The disruption of air traffic in Middle Eastern countries hurt global passenger demand data in March, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported. The metric of kilometers paid per passenger (RPK) rose 2.1% compared to March 2025. But if only markets outside the conflict zone are considered, the increase was 8%.
IATA also reported that total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), fell 1.7% year-on-year. And the flight load factor was 83.6% (up 3.1 pp compared to March 2025).
When only international demand is considered, there was a decline of 0.6% in March compared to the same month last year. In this comparison, capacity decreased by 6.2% and the load factor was 84.1%. The overall drop in international traffic was led by a 60.8% reduction by Middle Eastern airlines.
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Therefore, the global growth in demand can all be attributed to domestic performance, which increased by 6.5% compared to March 2025. Capacity grew by 5.6% year-on-year and load factor was 83.0% (+0.7 pp compared to March 2025).
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Brazil is a positive highlight
In this regard, Brazil was one of the highlights of the month, according to IATA, with growth of 10.8% in kilometers paid per passenger (RPK), a rate that was only below that observed in China (13.7%). The Brazilian domestic metric of available seat kilometers (ASK) showed an increase of 8.7%, also only below the Chinese one in the month (+13.1%).
Companies in the Middle East saw a 60.8% drop in demand compared to the previous year. Capacity fell 56.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 67.8% (-6.6 pp compared to March 2025). These numbers are a direct result of the US-Israel-Iran war, which closed much of the airspace in the region.
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Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, commented in a note that the biggest concern this year is related to aviation kerosene — both in terms of supply and prices. “On the supply side, in the coming months we could see shortages in parts of the world highly dependent on supplies from the Gulf, especially in Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being passed on to ticket prices,” he warned.
Jet fuel prices moved sharply in March, rising 106.6% year-on-year, along with a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% increase in refining margins.
According to him, this did not affect traffic in March, nor future bookings, but it is not yet known at what point high prices may start to change passenger behavior.
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“So far, the summer [no Hemisfério Norte] This is shaping up as a normally busy period for travel. This is positive news, but airline resilience is being tested, and stabilizing fuel supply and pricing is crucial,” he warned, highlighting that regulators need to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility regarding slots, given the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and possible fuel rationing.
Load
In the global air cargo market, the impact of the conflict was more sensitive. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (-5.5% for international operations).
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (-6.8% when considering only international flights).
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This at a time when global industrial production grew 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion. And with global goods trade up 8.0% year-on-year in February.
Again, the negative highlight was Middle Eastern airlines, which recorded a 54.3% year-on-year drop in air cargo demand in March, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity decreased by 52.4% compared to the previous year.
While the other commercial routes showed gains, the Europe-Middle East routes (-57.6%), Europe-North America (-3.4%), Middle East-Asia (-58.6%) led to the overall losses.
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In the comparison between March 2025 and March 2026, companies in Latin America and the Caribbean recorded a 1.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo. Capacity increased 5.1% year-on-year.
Walsh commented that air cargo networks are offering the flexibility needed to support global supply chains while adjusting to geopolitical, tariff and operational pressures.
