Political pressure, cyber attacks and finally strikes on critical infrastructure. The Finnish Agency for Strategic Reserves has published a hitherto classified scenario that describes the possible start of a large-scale war with Russia, writes the website. According to experts, the hypothetical conflict would begin with the crash of a Russian fighter jet on Finnish territory, which would be followed by an open military confrontation and the transition of the Nordic country to a war economy associated with a rationing system.
The document, which was only accessible to key security forces since last year, was published with the aim of increasing public awareness of threats and emphasizing the importance of supporting the army in crisis situations. The scenario envisages a geopolitical situation in which the war in Ukraine ends with a ceasefire, cooperation between Moscow and Beijing deepens, and the United States reduces its presence in Europe.
In this hypothetical framework, Russia would increase the pressure on Finland, while focused mainly on gaining control over the strategically key and demilitarized Åland Islands. At the same time, Moscow would use Finland’s NATO membership as a pretext to portray the alliance as a growing threat. The declaration of a state of emergency in Helsinki would be followed by a Russian “special military operation” accompanied by sabotage and drone attacks.
Despite dire predictions, Finnish President Alexander Stubb reassures the public. In a meeting with his Estonian counterpart Alar Karis, he played down fears of an imminent threat and also responded to recent warnings by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Russia could attack the NATO nation within months. Stubbs he does not expect Moscow to decide to test Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on its eastern flank anytime soon.
He emphasized that there is no need to panic, but it is necessary to vigorously prepare for the worst in order to avoid a possible conflict – which is already happening by gradually increasing European defense spending. The Finnish leader also assured that defense cooperation between Helsinki and Washington is stronger than ever and that Finland faces no restrictions on US arms supplies.
At the same time, both presidents agreed that although the current situation requires a tough stance, in the future it will be necessary to reopen communication channels with Russia. However, Stubb strongly pointed out that Europe must take such a step unitedly on the basis of a common mandate. He added that regardless of events, Russia will forever remain their neighbor, but mutual relations will never be the same as before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
