President and reelection candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains his lead in the 2026 presidential race, but sees his advantage over senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) tighter in the main first round scenario of the Real Time Big Data survey released this Tuesday (5).
In the stimulated survey, Lula appears with 40% of voting intentions, against 34% for Flávio Bolsonaro. The difference of six percentage points keeps the president ahead, but indicates a more competitive dispute than in previous rounds.
In March, Lula had 39% of voting intentions, against 32% for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Behind the top two, the scenario remains fragmented. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) registers 5%, Romeu Zema (Novo) has 4% and the other names do not exceed 3%. Blanks and nulls total 6%, while 5% of those interviewed were unable to answer.
The concentration of votes on the two main candidates reduces the space for alternatives outside of polarization. In practice, the scenario reinforces a dynamic of direct competition in the first round, with low growth capacity of other competitors.
Second round
The shortening of Lula’s advantage in the first round is reflected in the second round simulation. Flávio Bolsonaro went from 41% in March to 44% in May, while Lula went from 42% to 43%. The change puts the PL candidate numerically ahead, within the margin of error.
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The reduction in undecided votes and invalid votes, which fell from 17% to 13%, contributes to this movement by consolidating choices and reducing the space for abrupt variations.
Social base maintains clear division
Data by income indicate a consistent pattern of division of the electorate. Lula leads among the poorest, with 46% among those earning up to two minimum wages, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 30% in this group. Among those who receive more than five minimum wages, the scenario is reversed, with 36% for Flávio and 30% for Lula.
Regionally, Lula maintains an advantage in the Northeast, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears more competitive in the South and Central-West. This design reinforces the stability of each candidate’s bases and limits sudden changes in the short term.
High rejection limits progress
The survey shows high rejection for the two main names. Lula is rejected by 44% of those interviewed, while Flávio Bolsonaro registers 41%. This level reduces the potential for growth outside of already consolidated bases and tends to keep the competition balanced.
The survey interviewed 2,000 voters between May 2 and 4, 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.
