Quaest: Northeast becomes Lula’s main asset in the dispute against Flávio

The new survey by Genial/Quaest reinforced the weight of the Northeast as the main electoral base of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 2026 presidential race. The survey released this Wednesday (6) shows that the PT member concentrates his best performances precisely in the states where the government still maintains a positive approval balance.

Pernambuco appears as the state most favorable to the president. In the first round scenario, Lula registers 53% of voting intentions, against 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). In the second round, the distance increases, going from 57% to 23%.

Bahia and Ceará follow the same trend. In Bahia, Lula scored 49% in the first round, compared to 19% for Flávio. In a possible second round, the advantage increases to 55% to 22%. In Ceará, the president appears with 50% in the first round and 56% in the direct confrontation, against 23% and 28% for the PL senator, respectively.

The numbers follow the government’s approval ratings in these states. Pernambuco leads the national ranking of support for the federal government, with 61% approval. Bahia and Ceará appear close behind, with 60% and 58%.

The research suggests that Lula maintains the capacity to consolidate advantages in regions where social programs, income and federal policies still have greater electoral weight. The Northeast continues to function as the president’s main electoral anchor, even in a more competitive national scenario.

Another relevant data for the Planalto is in Minas Gerais. The state, considered decisive since redemocratization, shows Lula numerically ahead in both the first and second rounds.

In the first scenario, the PT member appears with 33%, against 27% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the second round simulation, Lula recorded 52% against 48%, within the margin of error.

Minas Gerais’ performance is seen as strategic because the state has a large electorate, a diverse economic profile and a history of anticipating the national winner. In 2018, Fernando Haddad lost Minas to Jair Bolsonaro. In 2022, Lula won by a minimal margin. Now, the PT member appears in a more comfortable position.

In addition to the Northeast and Minas, Lula also leads in Pará. In the second round, the president recorded 43%, against 36% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

Quaest data indicates that Lula’s electoral support depends less on the large urban centers of the South and Southeast and more on maintaining a robust advantage in the North and Northeast, combined with competitiveness in Minas Gerais.

How the Lula x Flávio dispute is going in the states surveyed

Rio Grande do Sul
Lula: 29%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 31%

Pernambuco
Lula: 53%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 19%

Ceará
Lula: 50%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 23%

Bahia
Lula: 49%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 19%

To
Lula: 35%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 32%

Minas Gerais
Lula: 33%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 27%

São Paulo
Lula: 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 34%

Rio de Janeiro
Lula: 29%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 31%

Paraná
Lula: 23%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 38%

Goiás
Lula: 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro: 25%

The survey interviewed 11,646 voters in ten states between April 21st and 28th. The margin of error is two percentage points in São Paulo and three points in the other states.