A picture of defeat for ruling Labor The first results of Britain’s local elections show, with hundreds of seats lost across the territory and poll projections from Wales and Scotland portending difficult days ahead for Labor in general and personally.
A clear defeat
By the early hours of the morning the results were confirming opinion polls and exit polls that wanted Labor to suffer heavy losses at councilor level across the English territory, on a day where a total of 5,066 councilors in 136 boroughs are up for election.
Collectively, they show losses of more than 240 seats so far compared to previous large-scale elections (when Labor elected a total of 3,073 councillors), with the party losing control of a number of medium-sized boroughs (Southampton, Tamworth) and scores of seats in others (Hartlepool, Redditch, Halton). Even in cities such as Wigan, Salford and Lincoln where Labor maintains a majority they are losing dozens of seats, mainly to the nationalist Reform party.
Seasoned election analyst Robert Hayward estimates that when the polls close Labor will have lost more than in England, while his political editor, Sam Coates, estimates that Labor will lose almost 87% of the seats it is contesting.
As for Nigel Farage’s party, at the time of writing it managed to elect more than 300 councilors more than in previous local elections, making smaller or larger gains in every borough.
Farage himself in a message to him hastened to talk about “historic change”. “We are recording surprising percentages in areas traditionally strongholds of Labor… We far exceed my expectations,” he said, among other things, stressing that “the Left-Right divide is over.”
Starmer’s stay is a mystery
Since in Britain changes in political leadership have traditionally been driven by internal opposition within the ruling parties rather than official opposition, Labour’s looming collapse has opened up the debate over Starmer’s replacement. Many cite the precedent of Tony Blair, when the former Labor prime minister amid intense intra-party friction announced in September 2006 that he was leaving at short notice, paving the way for Gordon Brown to succeed him.
Back to today, things are tougher for Labour, as the historic party is torn apart from the left and the right, with the Greens and Reform the big beneficiaries of its national collapse. Starmer himself is , with negative opinions of him in opinion polls exceeding 55%. A crash in the local elections will solemnly confirm the bad picture in the national opinion polls, intensifying the voices that will call for the speeding up of the internal procedures for the election of Starmer, who is still trying to overcome the consequences of the scandal of the appointment of the friend of the convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein Peter Mandelson to the post of ambassador to the US and on the other hand, the criticism of the opposition that it does not have a long-term strategy for the country in key areas (energy, economy, health) but is spent on political tactics and technocratic, short-term solutions.
Former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham and former deputy prime minister Angel Rayner are emerging as the front-runners for the leadership if Starmer chooses to leave.
However, there is no shortage of those who estimate that Starmer will manage to stay in his seat if Labor narrows the scope of its defeat to less than 1,500 lost seats.
Winners and losers
The picture is also bad for Britain’s other big traditional party, the Conservatives. The once-dominant right-wing party is electing more than 110 fewer councilors than in previous local elections, with its losses translating into gains for Farage’s party. A positive picture in absolute numbers shows the first results for the centrist Lib Dems, who have so far won 35 more seats and retain control of key cities such as Portsmouth and Stockport.
The performance of the Greens has also improved, confirming their role as the main competitor of Labor from the “left”. The party has so far elected 26 more councilors and according to political scientist and BBC contributor John Curtis, it is losing several seats from the ruling party, with the final effect being the dominance of Reform, which maintains strong pools of votes from both Conservatives and Labour. Party leader Zak Polanski spoke of “rewarding the only party that is serious about the rising cost of living” and called on Keir Starmer to “listen to the people and leave”.
In Wales and Scotland, where elections are being held to nominate MPs to their national parliaments, there is still no detailed picture, with preliminary aggregate results expected in the next few hours. But the first post-election estimates confirm that Labor is losing control of Wales after almost 30 years, to the centre-left, nationalist Plaid Cymru, which is said to be emerging as the first force. Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform maintain double-digit percentages in the same forecasts. A noticeable fall for Labor by at least five points and a comfortable lead of more than 40% for the Scottish National Party (SNP) show the election forecasts for Scotland. However, strong gains are also predicted for Reform, mainly due to the steep decline of the Conservatives.
