The survey was carried out before the leak of conversations involving the senator and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, in which he accused the businessman about the investment surrounding the film ‘Dark Horse’
A Datafolha survey released this Saturday (16) shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro tied in the second round of the 2026 elections. Lula and Flávio appear with 45% of voting intentions. Nine percent said they would vote blank or null and 1% did not know how to answer.
In April, Flávio Bolsonaro appeared numerically ahead, with 46%, against Lula’s 45%.
The survey was carried out before the leak of conversations involving Flávio and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, in which he accused the businessman about the investment surrounding the film “Dark Horse”, which tells the life of former president Jair Bolsonaro. THE The survey was carried out on Monday (12) and Tuesday (13).
The research was carried out with 2,004 people, in 139 municipalities in Brazil. THE Maximum margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE with code BR-00290/2026.
Compared to Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Lula opened a 6-point lead. The current president appears with 46% of voting intentions, while the former governor of Minas Gerais appears with 40%. Caiado has 39%.
In April, Lula appeared tied with Flávio, Zema and Caiado in the second round.
This was the first survey released after Intercept Brasil made public the conversation between Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro.
In the messages, Flávio calls Vorcaro ‘brother’ and charges the businessman a sum of R$134 million, of which R$61 million was actually paid to the production of the film between February and May 2025. The conversation took place one day before the Federal Police (PF) operation that arrested the former owner of Banco Master at Guarulhos Airport.
