The president remained tied with the senator in the simulation of the second round of the presidential elections until the publication of conversations between the parliamentarian and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, shows Datafolha research.
The survey was carried out on Tuesday (12) and Wednesday (13). Most of the interviews were carried out before the one between the son of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the then owner of Banco Master.
The survey shows Lula and Flávio tied with 45% of voting intentions each in the second round simulation. Another 9% say they would vote blank or null, and 1% say they don’t know.
Datafolha carried out 2,004 interviews with the Brazilian population aged 16 and over, throughout Brazil, in 139 municipalities. The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE with code BR-00290/2026.
The survey shows that the PT member gained an advantage over the former governors and Ronaldo Caiado ().
In the direct dispute with Zema, Lula appears with 46% of voting intentions, compared to 40% for the former governor of Minas Gerais.
Against Caiado, the PT member scores 46%, compared to 39% for the former governor of Goiás. In both cases, 13% of voters say they would vote blank, and 2% say they don’t know.
In the previous survey, in April, Lula was in a technical tie with Flávio, Zema and Caiado in the second round simulation.
The last month was marked by the president’s electoral appeal initiatives, such as the repeal of the “blouse tax” and the provisional measure to contain the increase in gasoline prices. The PT member also suffered a historic setback with the Senate’s rejection of Jorge Messias’ nomination to the STF (Supreme Federal Court), the first rejection of a name for the court since 1894.
Flávio, in turn, associated the defeat with an alleged weakness of the government and obtained another political victory with the overturning of Lula’s veto on the Dosimetria PL, paving the way for the reduction of his father’s sentences. The succession of good news was interrupted by the “Dark Horse” case.
Zema, in turn, focused his speeches on criticizing STF ministers, which made him the target of accusations from the Attorney General’s Office.
First round
In this week’s survey, in the stimulated first round scenario, the president appears with 38% of the votes, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 35%, Zema and Caiado, with 3%, Renan Santos (Missão), with 2%, and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), with 1%. Another 9% say they will vote blank or null and 3% say they don’t know.
In another first round hypothesis, with Ciro Gomes (PSDB) in the dispute, Lula records 37%, technically tied with Flávio, with 34%. The tucano appears with 5% of voting intentions, while Zema has 4%, and Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury (Avante) have 2% each. Ciro Gomes has already stated, however, that he does not intend to run for Palácio do Planalto — he is a pre-candidate for the Government of Ceará.
In the spontaneous question, when the institute does not present the names of the candidates, Lula has a large advantage, with 27% of mentions. Flávio appears next, with 18%, followed by the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro, with 3%, and Caiado, with 1%. In this scenario, 39% say they do not know who they intend to vote for.
Lula and Flávio lead the electoral race with high awareness and rejection rates. Only 1% say they don’t know the PT member, and 5% say they don’t know Bolsonaro’s son.
Among those interviewed, 47% say they would not vote for the current president at all in the first round, while 43% reject Flávio. The percentages remain stable: they were 48% and 46%, respectively, in April.
Zema and Caiado have similar rates. The first has a 15% rejection rate and is unknown to 54% of voters. The former governor of Goiás is rejected by 13% and unknown by 53%.
clippings
Datafolha asked each interviewee which number they fit into, considering a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a Bolsonarist and 5 being a PT member. Thus, the voter who identifies as number 3 is not aligned with either pole.
In a second round scenario between Lula and Flávio, 38% of those say they would vote for Bolsonaro’s son, and 32%, for the president. The situation is a technical tie, since the margin of error in this group is plus or minus five percentage points. Another 27% say they would vote blank or null.
The numbers indicate a downward trend for the PT member among these voters, who, according to analysts, should be decisive in the midst of a .
In April, Lula had 42% of voting intentions among those interviewed who were disassociated from Bolsonarism and PT, and Flávio, 36%. Another 19% said they would vote null or blank.
In this week’s survey, the profile of the electorate remains similar to that found in previous surveys.
In a second round with Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro has his best performance among men (50%), voters aged 25 to 34 (50%), among those with higher education (51%), among those earning more than ten minimum wages (58%), among businesspeople (71%), among evangelicals (61%) and among residents of the South region (59%).
In the same clash, Lula does better among women (48%), among voters aged 60 or over (52%), among voters who completed primary education (57%), among those earning up to two minimum wages (52%), among students (64%), among those who live in the Northeast region (60%), among blacks (59%) and among Catholics (54%).
The results of an electoral survey are not forecasts, that is, they do not intend to anticipate what will come out of the polls. They form a portrait of the interviewees’ opinions at the time the researchers went into the field. The interviews are carried out in person, at points of flow on the streets, and follow statistical criteria so that the sample represents the entire population.
