Allies of the president (PT) assess that the published research indicates that ()’s pre-campaign was already losing strength even before the revelation by , former owner of .
Congressmen linked to Flávio, on the other hand, minimize the electoral impact of the revelation and say that he has already given explanations to stop the crisis. On social media, the senator published the results of the survey and stated that he will not “give up on Brazil, no matter the farce and lies they plot against me.”
The survey for the second consecutive month, this time with 45% of voting intentions each in the second round simulation. Another 9% say they would vote blank or null, and 1% say they don’t know.
The data indicates stability after Bolsonaro’s son recorded growth in voting intentions in the first months of the year.
The survey was carried out on Tuesday (12) and Wednesday (13), and most of the interviews were carried out before Flávio asked Vorcaro for money.
In the dialogue revealed on Wednesday, Flávio asks the then owner of Banco Master for money, the former president (PL). In the messages, the senator calls the then banker, now in prison, “brother” and demands payment of late installments.
The combined value with Vorcaro would be R$134 million. Of this total, R$61 million was actually paid. The film’s producer denies having received funds from the former banker.
The Federal Police are still investigating whether the money went (PL-SP) abroad.
Federal deputy Jilmar Tatto (SP), who coordinates the PT’s electoral working group, said that the Datafolha survey shows “fatigue” in Flávio’s campaign and that Bolsonaro’s political group is in “bad shape”.
The PT member also said that the revelations about Flávio could lead the senator to give up the race for President. “We are on the offensive. They are on the defensive. Let’s watch what happens to Flávio, the risk of him becoming so dehydrated and having to remove [a candidatura”, afirmou. “Trabalhamos com o cenário de que ele pode não ser o candidato.”
Já o deputado Evair Vieira de Melo (PL-ES), vice-líder da oposição, diz que o caso não muda o cenário eleitoral. “Pelas circunstâncias, esse ‘vaza Master’ se tornou guerra de narrativas, e quem acusa mordeu o próprio rabo, então nada muda no cenário”, afirmou.
Ainda que a maioria das entrevistas do Datafolha tenha sido feita antes da revelação do caso “Dark Horse”, Flávio sugeriu que o episódio não teve impacto eleitoral. “Se está assim no Datafolha, imagina na vida real”, declarou.
Ao comentar na publicação de Flávio, o deputado Paulo Bilynskyj (PL-SP) afirmou que o senador está “cada vez mais forte”.
Políticos de partidos aliados de Lula veem como positiva a revelação dos diálogos com Vorcaro, mas e se dissipe até a eleição. Um deles disse, sob reserva, lamentar que a revelação tenha ocorrido a cinco meses da eleição.
O deputado Jonas Donezette (PSB-SP) diz ver ainda danos para o governador de São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos). “Ele será instado e cobrado pelos bolsonaristas mais radicais a se manifestar. Terá um complicador político para lidar”.
Sua avaliação é a de que partidos e políticos do centrão, que já preferiam transitar pela neutralidade e não se comprometer com nenhum candidato a presidente, ou atrasar o endosso a nomes nacionais.
“[A relação de Flávio com Vorcaro] It is a nuisance for allies and takes away the enthusiasm of Bolsonaro supporters. So far they have not been able to reverse the damage, not because of the PT’s actions, but because they themselves are on the defensive.”
This Saturday’s Datafolha, according to Donizette, seems to confirm that Lula has no chance of winning in the first round and that Flávio, with the Vorcaro episode, does not tend to gain an advantage over competitors on the right, such as Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado.
Datafolha carried out 2,004 interviews with the Brazilian population aged 16 and over, throughout Brazil, in 139 municipalities. The maximum margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The research is registered with the TSE with code BR-00290/2026.
The survey shows that the PT member gained an advantage over the former governors and Ronaldo Caiado ().
In the direct dispute with Zema, Lula appears with 46% of voting intentions, compared to 40% for the former governor of Minas Gerais.
Against Caiado, the PT member scores 46%, compared to 39% for the former governor of Goiás. In both cases, 13% of voters say they would vote blank, and 2% say they don’t know.
In the previous survey, in April, Lula was in a technical tie with Flávio, Zema and Caiado in the second round simulation.
The last month was marked by the president’s electoral appeal initiatives, such as the repeal of the “blouse tax” and the provisional measure to contain the increase in gasoline prices. The PT member also suffered a historic setback with the Senate’s rejection of Jorge Messias’ nomination to the STF (Supreme Federal Court), the first rejection of a name for the court since 1894.
