President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) appear today in a balanced situation in the second round simulation for the presidential election, both with 45% of voting intentions, according to a Datafolha survey carried out this week and released this Saturday by Folha de São Paulo. The scenario, however, was captured before the repercussion of messages exchanged between the parliamentarian and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, related to Banco Master, revealed by the website Intercept Brasil.
Data collection was carried out on Tuesday (12) and Wednesday (13). Folha de São Paulo explained that most of the interviews that fed into the survey took place before the publication of conversations between the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the then controller of the financial institution. In the same second round scenario, 9% of those interviewed say they would cancel or vote blank, and 1% say they are undecided.
In total, Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over, in 139 municipalities spread across all regions of the country. The study’s maximum margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-00290/2026.
The institute also measured Lula’s performance in direct disputes with other pre-candidates. In confrontation with the former governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo), the PT member has 46% of voting intentions, against 40% of his opponent from Minas Gerais. In a clash with the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the president maintains the same 46%, while the Goiás native scores 39%. In both scenarios, 13% of voters say they would vote blank or null, and 2% do not know who they would vote for.
In the previous survey, carried out in April, Lula appeared in a technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro, Zema and Caiado in the second round simulations. The new survey indicates that, while the duel with the senator remains level, the president now has a numerical advantage over the former governors.
In the stimulated first round table, Datafolha shows Lula with 38% of voting intentions. Flávio Bolsonaro comes next, with 35%. Zema and Caiado register 3% each, Renan Santos (Missão) appears with 2%, and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), with 1%. Another 9% say they intend to vote blank or null, and 3% still do not have a defined candidate.
Continues after advertising
In another first round scenario, which includes Ciro Gomes (PSDB) among the names presented, Lula scores 37%, and Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 34%, a technical tie within the margin of error. The toucan registers 5%, Zema has 4%, and Caiado, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury (Avante) add 2% each. Ciro, however, has already declared that he does not intend to run for President and is placing himself as a pre-candidate for the government of Ceará.
In the spontaneous question — when the institute does not display the list of candidates and the voter mentions a name off the top of his head — Lula leads with 27% of the citations. Flávio comes next, with 18%. Former president Jair Bolsonaro, now ineligible, is remembered by 3% of those interviewed, while Caiado reaches 1%. A significant portion, 39%, declare that they do not know who they intend to vote for in this question format.
In relation to the level of knowledge, Lula and Flávio remain the figures most present in the voter’s memory. Only 1% of those interviewed say they do not know the current president, and 5% say they do not know the senator. The survey also reveals high rejection rates for both: 47% say they would not vote for Lula at all in the first round, while 43% rule out voting for Flávio. These percentages are close to those measured in April, when they were 48% and 46%, respectively.
Among the other names tested, Zema and Caiado maintain more modest levels, both in knowledge and resistance. The former Minas Gerais governor is rejected by 15% of the electorate and remains unknown by 54%. The former governor of Goiás is rejected by 13% and is not recognized by 53% of those interviewed.
