The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a topic of growing geopolitical debate, especially after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
For the da CNN BrazilLourival Sant’Anna, the issue involves much more than direct military action — and the positioning of the United States is decisive for the outcome of the scenario.
Lourival assesses that China does not currently demonstrate intentions to occupy and colonize territories in a traditional expansionist way.
“With the exception of Taiwan and artificial islands and disputes over archipelagos with Japan and the Philippines, China has no intention of occupying and colonizing the territories,” he stated.
According to him, the Chinese movement is more focused on expanding economic and political power than on territorial conquest.
The “sea wall” and zones of influence
Taiwan, like Japan and the Korean Peninsula, is part of what is called the “first island chain” — a series of layers that extends to Hawaii.
Lourival describes this formation as “the Chinese maritime wall”, a structure that, in the Chinese view, serves to protect the country from adversaries at sea, in the same way that the Great Wall historically protected it on land. China considers that the Asia-Pacific region should naturally fall under its leadership.
This understanding converges, according to the analyst, with a vision attributed to Trump, that the three nuclear powers should divide the world into zones of influence: Eastern Europe for Russia, East Asia and the South China Sea for China, the Americas for the United States, and the Middle East as a zone of dispute.
Semiconductors and Taiwan’s election timeline
A factor considered unavoidable by Lourival is the issue of semiconductors.
“People cannot give up Taiwan to China at this time”he highlighted.
Furthermore, the analyst points to a relevant political timeline: in January 2028, Taiwan will hold elections, and China would be trying to influence this process to bring the island into its orbit without the need for war.
Before the summit with Trump, the Chinese regime received representatives from the Kuomintang, an opposition party in Taiwan. The analyst remembers that the Kuomintang was the party of Chiang Kai-shek, who lost the civil war against the communists in China in 1948 and moved to the island of Formosa. Over time, according to Lourival, the party would have changed its perspective and been co-opted by the Chinese regime.
The Hong Kong model and the siege strategy
Lourival draws a parallel with what happened in Hong Kong during Trump’s first term. When China imposed the National Security Law, the American government removed Hong Kong’s special commercial status — a measure that, in practice, ended up consolidating Chinese dominance over the territory.
“In the end, politically, this had the opposite effect”, he assessed.
The analyst suggests that Xi Jinping remembers this episode and may try to repeat the strategy with Taiwan: an initial naval blockade to control trade, followed by American recognition of the loss of the island’s autonomous commercial status.
“Checkmate, fait accompli. Taiwan enters China’s orbit”, he summarized. For Lourival, the United States would not have the desire to react to such an action, nor would Europe.
China plays Go, not chess
To explain Chinese strategic logic, the analyst uses a reference attributed to diplomat Henry Kissinger in his book about China: the Chinese do not play chess, a game in which the objective is to directly overthrow the king and declare victory.
They play Go, a game of siege and gradual suffocation.
“Most of the time, in Goiás, it is not known who won. The match is inconclusive. There is no winner. But there is suffocation, there is siege. This is much more Chinese”, concluded the analyst.
