How can Brazil exploit China’s current focus on expanding domestic consumption?

The focus that China has given to strengthening domestic consumption and reducing the economy’s dependence on exports and heavy investment – ​​explained in the 15th Five-Year Plan for the period from 2026 to 2030 – tends to open up space for imported premium products – and Brazil is able to prepare itself to take advantage of the opportunities that this strategy will offer. The analysis is by Theo Paul Santana, specialist in China/Brazil business and founder of Destino China.

Santana says he already sees Brazil occupying a privileged position within the commercial relationship with China and believes that the challenge now is to evolve from purely volume exports to a strategy with greater added value.

He highlights that animal protein continues to be one of the great opportunities. “In 2025, China imported around US$8.9 billion in Brazilian beef. Chinese consumption continues to grow, and Brazil has relevant competitiveness in this sector”, he states.

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The expert also cites coffee as one of the most interesting movements to observe. “Chinese per capita consumption still represents a fraction of Brazil’s, but is growing rapidly among young urban consumers. The agreement between Luckin Coffee and Brazilian exporters foresees purchases of close to US$1.4 billion by 2029”, he says.

“I also see a lot of potential in natural cosmetics, Amazonian products, propolis, supplements and healthy foods. The premium Chinese consumer values ​​traceability, origin, sustainability and well-being — attributes in which Brazil can build differentiation”, he says.

One of the points that Santana emphasizes is the fundamental point to take advantage of the new wave is that it is not enough to have a product, China requires strategy. “Anyone who wants to compete in this market will need to invest in certification, packaging in Mandarin, digital operations, local influencers and presence on Chinese platforms such as Tmall Global, JD International and Douyin”, lists the founder of Destino China. “The mistake of many Brazilian companies is to think that China works like a Western market. It doesn’t work”, he warns.

In other words, he argues that the opportunity is enormous, but it requires professionalization, branding and a deep understanding of Chinese consumer behavior.

Global chains

Theo Santana also states that the advancement of Chinese consumption could change global chains and that this may be one of the most important economic transformations of the next decade. “Today, China still exports a lot of deflation to the world because it produces more than it consumes. In sectors such as steel, electric vehicles and solar panels, there is excess industrial capacity. When this excess production is not absorbed internally, it ends up putting pressure on prices globally”, he explains.

So if domestic consumption really grows, part of this production will be absorbed by the Chinese population itself – and this could reduce global pressure on manufacturing, steel and heavy industry.

The expert recalls that, for the IMF, if China manages to carry out important structural reforms, such as expanding social protection and making the hukou system more flexible, [registro oficial de residência permanente na China]domestic consumption could add up to 2.5% to GDP by 2030 and generate millions of jobs.

At the same time, he states that the growth in Chinese consumption tends to open up space for imported premium products. “There is accelerated growth in categories such as specialty coffee, healthy foods, natural cosmetics, supplements, tourism and sophisticated consumer experiences.”

Another strategic point mentioned by Santana is cross-border e-commerce. Chinese cross-border e-commerce is already worth more than US$400 billion and allows foreign brands to sell directly to Chinese consumers without having to set up physical operations in the country.

“This completely changes the entry logic for small and medium-sized companies. But everything depends on the implementation of Chinese internal reforms. China has been talking for more than 20 years about strengthening domestic consumption, but progress so far has still been relatively slow.”