The controversy involving senator Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro is directly impacting voting intentions for this year’s elections. This is what the AtlasIntel survey revealed this Tuesday (19) and analyzed by political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida in an interview with Hour H. According to the expert, the negative news generated a drop in voting intentions for Flávio Bolsonaro, expanding the group of voters without a defined candidate.
Fall of Flávio Bolsonaro and undecided voters
Alberto Carlos Almeida assessed that the research data confirms what was already expected. “From last week until today, he has had frankly unfavorable news, negative news. The media has an effect on this,” he said.
For the expert, a group of voters began not to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro during this period of negative coverage, although this does not necessarily mean a permanent change.
Almeida highlighted a relevant fact revealed by the research: voters who failed to declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro did not migrate to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). “Flávio’s candidacy falls and rises, null, white, undecided. They didn’t go for Lula, that’s a fact,” he said.
In the expert’s assessment, these voters would probably be waiting for the end of the turbulence to possibly return to the candidate. “After all this storm passes, all this tidal wave, then they return to Flávio”, he analyzed.
Lula stagnant and possibility of victory in the first round
Asked about Lula’s stagnation in the polls and the possibility of a victory in the first round, Almeida considered that this scenario is possible, but unlikely given the current electoral situation. “Of course, a victory in the first round can happen, it only happened twice, in the two victories of Fernando Henrique Cardoso”, he recalled.
The expert argued that the presence of multiple candidates, including names like Renan Santos (Missão), Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), makes a definition mathematically difficult in the first round. “If the distance is small, dwarf candidates would hardly allow a decision in the first round”, he explained.
Almeida also commented on Renan Santos’ growth in research, describing it as a typical social media phenomenon. “He simply goes on social media, starts saying things that attract a lot of attention and then gets votes. It’s a new reality that we live in”, he observed.
The expert contrasted this profile with that of , described as someone from the traditional political system, and with that of Zema, who accumulated experience after years leading the government of Minas Gerais.
Rejection data and candidate fear
The AtlasIntel survey also measured candidate rejection rates. leads with 52% rejection, followed by Lula with 50.6%, former president Jair Bolsonaro with 49.1% — in a hypothetical scenario, since he will not run — and Michelle Bolsonaro with 45.6%. Romeu Zema recorded a 42.2% rejection rate, while Renan Santos had the lowest rejection rate among the names evaluated, with less than 38%.
Furthermore, 47.4% of those interviewed said they feared the election of Flávio Bolsonaro, compared to 40.5% who feared Lula’s re-election.
PL sues TSE against AtlasIntel research
The PL sued the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) asking for the suspension of the dissemination of the AtlasIntel survey. The party claims that the questionnaire negatively directs respondents against Flávio Bolsonaro by including the display of the audio of the conversation with .
According to the party’s lawyers, of the 48 questions asked, eight deal with Flávio’s alleged involvement with the owner of Master, which was classified as “clear inducement”. The PL also requests the imposition of a fine for alleged irregularities, and in a note, Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-campaign asked for the investigation of possible electoral crimes.
In a statement, the Institute stated that it has not yet been officially notified, but expressed “complete tranquility” in the face of the accusations. The institute clarified that the interviewees answered whether or not they were already aware of the audio — without it being played during the collection of the main data — and declared that it was available to the TSE to provide clarifications on the methodology applied.
Attacks on the credibility of research
For Alberto Carlos Almeida, the action is part of the political game and represents a risk to the credibility of electoral polls. “You start to attack the credibility of the polls, so the polls become partisan,” he warned.
The expert recalled that this type of strategy was already used in the previous election and could lead to the division of research companies into “PTistas” and “Bolsonaristas” in the public’s perception. “Methodologically, everyone there knows how to do research and, in principle, no one has bad faith”, concluded Almeida, highlighting that the results can be analyzed, compared and even questioned methodologically, but not simply discarded as wrong.
