Amid incessant rumors about a weekend in which important things were going to happen, the United States is sending signals that it could extend the current ceasefire with Iran. Late on Saturday, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has been very optimistic about the negotiations, which he believes will come to a successful conclusion and will include one of the aspects that most worries the West due to its effects on the price of oil: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passes. A few minutes after Trump made this announcement, the authorities in Tehran denied that they were thinking of giving up this important ace in the hole. According to the Fars agency, the Strait of Hormuz continues under Iranian management in the latest draft that the two countries have exchanged.
This Sunday, the Iranian agency Tasmin affirms that if the naval blockade by the United States is not lifted, no change will occur in the strait. However, he adds that the closure must be lifted within 30 days if an agreement is reached. And he gives more information about the draft by ensuring that Washington would lift sanctions on Iranian oil.
Iran already admitted on Saturday that it was working on a memorandum of understanding to end the war, after the meeting of its top officials with Asim Munir, head of the army of Pakistan, the mediating country. The Pakistani military said the negotiations had led to “encouraging” progress, Reuters reported. Two Pakistani sources involved in the talks said the deal being negotiated is “complete enough to end the war.” The Iranian regime’s agency adds this Sunday that the draft supposedly stipulates that Washington and its allies will not attack Iran. Tehran, for its part, would commit to the same in relation to the United States. The Tasmin agency assures that Iran, at least for the moment, has not accepted any measures regarding the nuclear program, another of Trump’s great concerns. “The nuclear issue will be addressed in negotiations to reach a final agreement and is therefore not part of the current agreement. No agreement has been reached on shipping Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile out of the country, a source in Tehran told Reuters on Sunday.
“The final aspects and details of the agreement are being discussed and will be announced soon. In addition to other elements, the agreement provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said Saturday in his post on his social network, Truth. This agreement, according to the Republican, has been negotiated in a call, which he described as “very good”, with the most relevant leaders of the Arab and Muslim world, among others, the Saudi Mohamed Bin Salmán, the Emirati Mohamed Bin Zayed, the Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Egyptian Abdel Fattá al Sisi and the Jordanian Abdullah II. The Pakistani negotiator, Asim Munir, and representatives of Qatar and Bahrain also participated in the conversation.
On the other hand, Trump also spoke with the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, a call that, according to the Republican, went “very well.” “A deal is being negotiated, subject to completion by the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran and other countries.” he added. Previously, he had assured in a conversation with Axios who could make a decision on whether to resume the war by Sunday. “Either we reach a good agreement or I will send you to hell,” he said..
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, highlighted this Sunday that “more news about the situation in Iran could be released” during this day, while reiterating that Tehran “can never have nuclear weapons.”
The head of US diplomacy already insisted on Saturday on the idea that his country has made progress in its negotiations with Iran. “Progress has been made. Even as I speak to you right now work is being done. There is a chance that, whether later today, tomorrow or in a couple of days, we will have something to say,” he said in India, where he is traveling.
Iranian representatives and Pakistani negotiators also supported the thesis of optimism. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said Saturday that his country is finalizing a memorandum outlining the points of the agreement after Munir, the Pakistani negotiator, met his Iranian counterpart. Munir, also chief of the Pakistani General Staff, has spoken of “promising” negotiations to reach an agreement.
The diary Financial Times gave more details. According to this publication, which cites sources familiar with the talks, the mediators believe that they are “close to reaching an agreement” to extend the ceasefire for 60 days. Negotiators are discussing the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a framework to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program, which would include discussing enriched uranium reserves, two of the thorniest points facing the two countries. The United States, according to this information, would ease its blockade of Iranian ports and, in phases, accept sanctions relief and the unblocking of Tehran’s assets held abroad. If confirmed, the pact would not definitively end a crisis, but it would provide a relative respite for the two countries.
According to the Reuters agency this Sunday, the proposed framework would be developed in three phases: the formal end of the war, the resolution of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the beginning of a 30-day period to negotiate a broader agreement, which could be extended. One of the Pakistani sources said that if the United States accepts the memorandum, new talks could be held after the Muslim Eid holiday ends next Friday.
Trump had already shown his optimism on Friday by stating in a meeting with voters that the conflict with Iran “will end soon.” The announcement came after an intense week of diplomacy. A week that began with a shock, when Trump announced on his social network, Truth, that he had come to pass, something that would have blown up the ceasefire that came into effect on April 8. But, he explained, he had canceled those instructions at the last minute, at the request of his Arab allies (Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia), because the three were convinced that a peace agreement was almost within reach.
Since then, contacts between governments have redoubled. Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday. Iranian Minister Aragchi spoke with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud. This Friday, the Pakistani mediator traveled to Tehran to try to close the last issues. A Qatari representation also arrived.
Meanwhile, the White House modified the president’s official program at the last minute. Trump was scheduled to spend the weekend at his golf club in Bedford, New Jersey, after participating in a rally with voters in the town of Suffern, New York, on Friday. But suddenly, his office confirmed that he would return from that meeting with supporters directly to Washington, where he will now spend the entire weekend.
From Helsingborg, in Sweden, where he was attending the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, showed himself this Friday. “There has been some progress. I don’t want to exaggerate it, but there has been some movement, and that is good,” he said in statements to the press.
The progress in the dialogue represents a relative respite for the American president, who entered the war convinced that it would be a matter of a couple of days of bombing before Iran capitulated and a popular uprising deposed the ayatollah regime. A quick victory, in the style of the one he obtained even to his own surprise in January in Venezuela, which would give him the keys to Iran’s very juicy oil sector and which would radically change the geopolitical keys in the Middle East.
The reality has been very different. Almost 90 days and thousands of Iranian deaths later, neither Tehran has surrendered nor the theocratic regime has fallen, despite the deaths of many of its main figures – including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, replaced by his son Mojtaba. Since the beginning of the conflict, the Islamic Republic has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas cross, something that has skyrocketed fuel prices on the planet. Iran has also inflicted serious damage on US military bases in the Persian Gulf area. The situation now seems to be frozen with no clear way out of the conflict.
The Pentagon estimates the cost of the conflict at $29 billion, after placing it at $25 billion at the end of April. In both cases, the figures are below experts’ calculations and do not include costs such as repairs to damage to military bases. In addition, the bombing of Iran, the use of Iranian air defense systems and missiles have emptied US arsenals of key munitions and interceptors; Replacing what was shot or destroyed will be a task of years.
The price of gasoline does not stop rising in the United States: for weeks it has already exceeded the peak it reached at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and senior officials in the Administration fear that it will end up exceeding the infamous $5.02 per gallon, the maximum it reached during the mandate of Democrat Joe Biden. Dragged by these increases, inflation skyrockets again. Last month it stood at 3.8%, according to official data, a level not seen since the worst years of the Biden Administration, when the global economy paid the price of the covid pandemic and the strangulation of supply chains.
All of this is reflected in a setback in the president’s popularity levels in the polls. Earlier this week, a poll published by The New York Times gave him an approval level of 37%, the lowest in this second term. Another, from Quinnipiac, cut presidential popularity to just 34%.
