Risk Map: Flávio’s crisis makes Lula “play still” for the first time in 2026

After months under pressure due to high inflation, erosion of popularity, crises in Congress and communication difficulties, the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government began to observe a rare movement in the political scenario of 2026 with the opposition absorbing the center of public exhaustion.

The assessment made by participants in the Risk Map, a policy program for the InfoMoneyis that the crisis involving Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and former banker Daniel Vorcaro temporarily changed the dynamics of the presidential race and allowed Planalto to get off the defensive for the first time since the beginning of the pre-campaign.

“Lula is now playing at a standstill, something that Flávio was doing until recently,” said Renato Dolci, political scientist and data director at Timelens.

According to him, the role reversal has become evident in recent weeks, while the government reduced public pressure on economic and institutional issues, Bolsonarism began to spend energy responding to accusations involving Daniel Vorcaro’s audios.

“What we are seeing is Lula standing around waiting and Flávio having to explain himself,” said Dolci.

Agenda changed quickly

Until a few weeks ago, the political environment was marked by continuous government erosion. Surveys showed difficulties in recovering Lula’s popularity, while Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy grew, supported by the unification of the right and the economic erosion of the Planalto.

The release of the audios from the Master case changed this axis. According to him, the public discussion stopped being concentrated on inflation, cost of living and government problems and moved to corruption, financial coordination and the crisis within Bolsonarism.

“We were talking about difficult times for the Lula government. Now we are talking about Flávio’s pre-campaign”, he summarized.

The change helped Planalto reduce immediate pressure without having to produce a new political fact or announce economic measures of great impact.

Lula buys time without having to react

In analysts’ assessment, the president’s main political gain at this moment is time. With the opposition focused on containing damage, Lula began to operate without the need to respond daily to negative news — something that had been happening since the government’s defeat in the Senate and the wear and tear on issues related to public security and the cost of living.

“The government didn’t need to do anything extraordinary to change the environment,” said Victor Scalet, policy analyst at XP. According to him, crises in the opposition tend to have an even greater impact in environments of extreme polarization because they quickly shift the emotional focus of the electorate.

Furthermore, Bolsonarism’s difficulty in organizing a consistent digital reaction helped the government to expand this temporary advantage. “The right is still trying to figure out which narrative to use,” Scalet said.

Polarization continues to preserve dispute

Despite the momentary relief for Lula, analysts avoid treating the episode as a definitive turning point in the election. The predominant assessment is that polarization continues to structure the dispute and limits sudden changes in the scenario.

“The migration of votes that leaves Flávio does not necessarily go to Lula”, recalled Dolci.

According to him, a relevant part of this electorate tends to migrate first to indecision or to other names on the right before considering support for the president.

Even so, the episode brought the government something that had been missing for months, the possibility of observing the main opponent absorbing political, digital and media exhaustion without the Planalto having to enter directly into the confrontation.

In a highly polarized electoral environment, this is already seen within the government as an important partial victory.

The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.