This weekend, the world has gone from a sigh of relief to a gasp of despair, in just a few hours. The United States announced that it already had a pact with Iran to end the war, which began on February 28, and then reversed itself and stated that, well, it was close, but there were still major disagreements. Since then, everything has been a cascade of speculation and leaks in the national press.
This morning, the news came from the North American Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who has tried to justify the vagaries of his president, Donald Trump, who was the one who inoculated the shot of hope and then backed away. Trump, he says, will not make a “bad deal” with Iran. Negotiations are still underway because Tehran’s internal system requires more time to respond, he maintains, weakened as it is by the attacks and divided. It is difficult to make decisions and it is difficult to transmit them, it goes to say.
“We are still working on it, it takes a little time to receive a response (…) As the president said, he is in no hurry. He is not going to sign a bad agreement. I mean he will not make a bad agreement. So we will see what happens,” the Cuban-born leader declared to the media, from the New Delhi air base.
The US, he guarantees, will have to reach a good agreement with Iran or negotiate with the country “in another way.” Rubio maintains that his Government will give diplomacy every possible opportunity before exploring “alternatives”, a conciliatory message but one that curbs the desire for an imminent agreement, in line with the president’s words yesterday, when he said that he had instructed his representatives not to rush to close any agreement with Iran.
“There was a fairly solid proposal on the table in terms of its ability to open the strait, achieve its opening, engage in a real, meaningful and time-bound negotiation on the nuclear issue, and we hope to be able to achieve it,” Rubio stated. A day earlier, Trump wrote in Truth Social that the US blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz (that very valuable Strait through which, before the crisis, 20% of the world’s crude oil passed) “would remain in force until an agreement is reached, certified and signed.” He added: “Both sides need to take their time and do things right.”
The Iranian government did not immediately respond. However, the Tasnim news agency, linked to Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard, reported that Washington continued to block parts of a possible deal, including Tehran’s demand to release frozen funds.
Oil prices, so far, fell 6% on Monday, reaching two-week lows, amid growing optimism that the US and Iran were approaching a peace agreement. Asian stock markets are mostly rising: Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 3.1% in the morning session, to 65,321.56 points. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% to 8,692.70 points. The Shanghai Composite index rose slightly by 0.4%, to 4,127.53 points. Stock exchanges in South Korea and Hong Kong remained closed for Buddha’s birthday festivities. In the United States, stock exchanges will remain closed on Monday for Memorial Day, AP recalls.
Trump raised expectations of an imminent deal on Saturday by claiming that Washington and Tehran had largely negotiated a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Before the conflict, this crucial sea lane carried a fifth of the world’s shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas.
The thorny issues
The two sides remain at odds over several difficult issues, including Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon against the Iranian-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah, and Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks.
A senior Trump administration official outlined what he said were the latest details of the issues under negotiation.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade, and getting rid of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium. He added that the US understood that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei, had supported the general framework of the agreement.
There was no immediate confirmation from Iran or clarification on the meaning of an agreement “in principle.”
The US official told Reuters that Washington was first considering reopening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade. Negotiating the details of nuclear measures would require more time. The same senior employee rejected suggestions that Iran had not agreed to dispose of its stockpile of enriched uranium. “The question is how,” he declared. A second senior government official stated on Sunday that the proposed framework would give negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement, the same agency quotes.
Iranian sources had told CNN that, in later stages, “viable formulas” could be found to resolve the dispute over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, including diluting the material under the supervision of the UN nuclear watchdog.
Iran has repeatedly denied accusations by the United States and Israel that it is developing nuclear weapons and claims to have the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, although the purity achieved far exceeds that needed for power generation.
Trump, whose popularity has been hit by the war’s impact on U.S. energy prices, and who has faced attempts by Congress to limit his war powers, has repeatedly insisted on the possibility of an agreement to end the conflict that began between the United States and Israel on February 28. A fragile ceasefire has held since early April.
The president responded to criticism about his handling of the negotiations and his willingness to reach a deal with Iran. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and appropriate one… So don’t listen to the losers, who criticize something they know nothing about,” Trump posted on Sunday.
Any agreement that strengthens the current fragile ceasefire would ease the situation in the markets, but would not immediately defuse the global energy crisis, which has sent fuel, fertilizer and food prices soaring.
US and Israeli bombings against Iran killed thousands of people in Iran before being suspended in early April.
Israel has also killed thousands of people and forced hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it invaded in pursuit of the militant group Hezbollah. Iranian attacks against Israel and neighboring Gulf states have caused dozens of deaths.
