The war continues and Portugal faces the worst inflation in the last two years. Around 4,700 businesspeople interviewed by the National Statistics Institute warn that the worst may be yet to come.
The majority of the almost 5 thousand businesspeople and managers from various sectors of economic activity, interviewed by IBGE between May 1st and 21st, admit that they will have to continue increasing sales prices throughout the next three months.
According to , until the beginning of September, at least, prices are expected to remain high, in the wake of the worsening of production costs caused by the energy shock, which has lasted since March.
A inflation in Portugal almost doubledrising from 1.9% in January to 3.3% in April, the highest value in the last two years. According to managers and decision-makers consulted in INE’s monthly economic surveys, carried out in May, the trend is continuation of price rises.
If the same scenario occurs in other Eurozone countries, especially in the largest economies, the European Central Bank (ECB) may move forward with an increase in interest rates at the monetary policy meeting on June 10th and 11th.
This scenario reinforces the possibility of several interest rate rises by the ECB until December, possibly two or three updates of 0.25 percentage points each. If realized, the cost of money in the Eurozone could rise from the current 2% to around 2.75%.
In Portugal, inflation started to accelerate in March and, according to the expectations expressed by the managers interviewed, should remain high in the next few months.
The cost of fresh food and unprocessed essential goods also recorded a significant worseningdriven by the impact of war in the Middle East.
According to available data, the average price of the non-industrialized basic food basket increased by around 7% between January and April this year, in an annual comparison, compared to the same period in 2025, exceeding the average national inflation rate.
