Opta Analyst ran 10,000 simulations to arrive at the result; France appears in 2nd place, with a 13% chance of winning the title
On Monday (June 1, 2026), Spain was classified as the main candidate for the title. The Spanish team has a 16.1% chance of winning their second world championship. France appears in 2nd place, with a 13% chance of lifting the cup for the 3rd time. The projections were released by the company specializing in sports statistics.
Opta Analyst carried out around 10,000 computer simulations to calculate the probabilities of each selection in the tournament. The World Cup will be played in North America. The competition begins on June 11th and ends on July 19th, the date of the final at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, on the outskirts of New Jersey, in the United States.
Spain won its only world title in 2010, in South Africa. The Spanish team was champion of the 2024 Euro Cup and runner-up in the last edition of the World Cup. France won the tournament in 1998 and 2018.
England, led by top scorer Harry Kane, occupies 3rd place in the projections, with an 11.2% probability of winning the title. Argentina, current world champion and led by star Lionel Messi, has a 10.4% chance. Portugal, with Cristiano Ronaldo in its squad, completes the top 5 with a 7% probability.
The Brazilian team appears in 6th position. The (Brazilian Football Confederation) has a 6.6% chance of winning the sixth championship
“In a tournament with 48 teams, there is a wide range of possible results, and no team will be able to reach very high percentages”says Opta.
Four European teams complete the list of the 10 with the greatest chance of winning the World Cup. Germany appears with a 5.1% probability. The Netherlands has a 3.6% chance. Norway has a 3.5% probability. Belgium closes the list with 2.4%.
The 1st edition of the expanded World Cup will feature 48 participating teams. The tournament will have a total of 104 matches played. In the group stage, there will be 12 brackets with 4 teams in each.
The top 2 placed in each group advance to the next phase. The 8 best third-placed teams also qualify. The 32 classified teams will now face each other in knockout matches until the champion is defined.
