Brazil is not the favorite. Simple. We didn’t have a good cycle — neither in results nor in performance. Our main players were unable to fit in and form a team. There is hope and also suspicion that Neymar will arrive in time to save us. Brazil is not a favorite, but it is not an underdog either. We will arrive with a pool of incomplete teams, in a tournament of eight games, five of which will be knockouts, which will allow for surprises and occasional teams to go far.
Those who did their homework and organized themselves to enter the World Cup, creating fear were Portugal, Spain and France. In theory, so does Argentina, which I trust less. The three previous teams have plenty of players, well-established ways of playing and have been tested and approved recently.
Spain bets on controlling the game with a lot of technique from the defenders, midfielders who don’t let you touch the ball and two improvised attackers, 1 vs 1 and decision-making ability. What counts against it is that precisely these two, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, arrive injured and do not have suitable replacements. Spain will need to recover its best game with the World Cup underway.
Portugal and France have a mix of strength, technique and pragmatism that can take them far, even with the teams giving the feeling that they are playing less than they could. It was like that at Euro 2024, when France reached the semi-finals with four goals in six games, three draws, two wins and one defeat. Portugal fell in the quarter-finals to France after 120 minutes of 0-0. In the round of 16, they also drew goalless with Slovenia, but ended up advancing. The bet is on defensive solidity and that great midfield and attacking players are capable of unlocking games.
Argentina comes next, with just four defeats since 2023, the Copa América title and sovereignty in the Qualifiers. The issues that generate distrust are the festive cycle, avoiding friendlies with stronger teams, and the low level of play in the 2024 Copa América. Messi continues to be the point of imbalance, but, at 39 years old (he will turn 24), the same cannot be expected from him.
After these teams (and they all have relevant negative points), none is better than Brazil’s. Germany and England are at a similar stage to ours: they suffer from technical instability, little work done by coaches and a long time without results. Holland, Japan, Morocco, Ecuador, Belgium and Norway come in a third tier: good teams, without hierarchy from the others, capable of eliminating a great one on a good day and falling to someone worse on a bad day.
Brazil is at a disadvantage compared to three or four teams, equal to two others and ahead of the others. We need to consolidate the way we play, for the players to be comfortable in the scheme set up and for it to enhance the protagonists Raphinha and Vinicius.
What works in our favor is that the best coach in the World Cup coaches our national team. With three weeks of training, the level of play can improve. During the World Cup, Carlo Ancelotti can make this team gain confidence and the players feel better. If the favorites advance to the top of their groups, the toughest opponent until the semifinals will be England — a team also in formation. If Brazil advances, it is because the team will have improved and will be able to face the most dominant teams in the two final clashes.
I’m not a fanatic, but I also don’t share the apocalypse surrounding the national team.
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