Planalto assesses the low operational impact of defining factions as terrorists, but there is financial pressure and reputational wear
The government of (PT) assesses that there is no prospect of reversing, in the short term, the international decisions that associate the CV (Comando Vermelho) and the PCC with terrorist organizations. The practical effects of the measures already adopted tend to be more financial and reputational than operational at this stage. That’s why it exists.
The United States government’s decision to classify PCC and CV as terrorist organizations comes into force on June 5th and is part of a broader movement to tighten Trumo’s policy in Latin America.
Classifications of this type tend to be long-term and require complex political and bureaucratic review.
In the Brazilian government, however, the assessment is that the practical effects will not be immediate in the operational field of the factions, because the impact of the measures is mainly financial and indirect. It affects the banking system and compliance than the operational structure of criminal organizations in the short term.
Planalto’s concern is based on the extraterritorial reach of American legislation. By classifying an organization as terrorist, the US can sanction banks and companies in any country that operate with it, without relying on bilateral agreements or local legislation.
The repercussion of the measures was expected.
Planalto Technicians consider that this type of decision has low reversibility in the short term. Even if there are open diplomatic channels between Brasília and Washington, the expectation is that any change will depend on broader negotiation and, eventually, political or institutional compensation.
The backdrop to these moves is the new US security strategy, in early December. The document ignores BRICS and reinforces a muscular version of the Monroe Doctrine, dubbed “Trump Corollary”. It states that Washington will reassert its pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere, barring the actions of “non-hemispheric competitors”, in reference to countries like China.
SOVEREIGNTY AND ELECTIONS
In public, President Lula has reinforced a discourse of national sovereignty when dealing with the issue. Government and repression, without the need for external classifications.
On a political level, the government also maintains that it will continue with its own strategy to combat organized crime, with reinforcement of international cooperation actions and integration between security forces.
Still, the assessment is that the new framework created by the USA should remain a pressure factor.
In parallel, trade instruments used by the United States, such as Section 301, .
Planalto does not see the measures as punctual or isolated. VPay attention to the senator’s movements (PL) together with conservative sectors in the USA.
The former president’s eldest son (PL) had a with the American president (Republican Party) last Tuesday (May 26), a week before the proposal was announced.
There is also an assessment that a possible combination of measures could increase the effective load on certain products, but that any progress will depend on direct negotiation between the two countries.
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